Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive. … continue reading →
Tag Archives: Channel
If you knew absolutely nothing about the company Intel, but knew just the basics of chart patterns and Fibonacci patterns, today’s sharp pullback would have come as no surprise. In fact, you could say the same thing about the past 25 years. Note that 69.29 was only 75 cents away from an 88.6% retracement (a … continue reading →
In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22. It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced … continue reading →
To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →
These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility. More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →
We finally saw the backtest we’ve been expecting as SPX fell a whopping 70 points (-1.47%), almost reaching its 10-day moving average and bleeding off its overbought condition. ES came within a few points of our Fibonacci backtest, also coming up just short of its 10-DMA.continued for members… … continue reading →
In a move that surprised no one, the BoJ left their monetary policy unchanged unhinged. The policy statement still reflects the looney tunes, magical thinking that has always epitomized their decisions: they’ll raise rates when inflation reaches 2% – even though inflation is well above 2% and has been for over a year. Annualizing the … continue reading →
Futures are drifting higher as we approach the open, mostly on year-end positioning. continued for members… … continue reading →
If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll. On CNBC this morning: “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten … continue reading →
CPI came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.1% versus 0.0% expected and prior (annual 3.1% vs 3.1%.) Core was 4.0% (unchanged) but 0.3% monthly versus 0.2% prior and 0.0% expected.) Core goods actually fell 0.3% while much stickier services rose a blistering 0.5%. This is all a bit of a disappointment for the rate … continue reading →