Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →
In our last major analysis of COMP [see: Oct 13, 2022 Update] we noted that COMP hadd reversed within 1% of our upside target in 2021 and had subsequently dropped to within 0.3% of our 10,122 target. Since then, it’s been a battle. COMP finally rebounded to our 13,873 target at the yellow .618 Fibonacci … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print. continued for members… … continue reading →
Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared … continue reading →
Futures are sagging after powering through another key Fibonacci level. At this point, the only question is whether or not we see a backtest. With OPEX coming up tomorrow, it’s unclear whether we could get a full backtest of the .786 at 4534.63. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day. Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities. continued for members… … continue reading →
With CPI due out tomorrow, we should see confirmation of how behind the curve the FOMC continues to be. Whether or not the data comes in above estimates, it will still be well above the Fed’s professed target of 2% – meaning the pause was yet another mistake served up in the interest of propping … continue reading →