Fed Whispering

The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession. continued for members… … continue reading →

VIX: Not a Coincidence

When COMP bounced at 10,572.33 on Friday, a mere 7.19 above its June 16 lows, it might have struck some as a coincidence.  It wasn’t. It was a well-coordinated effort to ensure that new lows were avoided – at least for the time being.The usual culprit: VIX.  For the 6th session in a row and … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Pretty Soon, You’re Talking Real Money

Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.  It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jul 27, 2022

Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision. Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup. continued for members… … continue reading →

Oil and Inflation

WTI has reached our 200-day moving average target posted last month.This is a very significant move which, unfortunately, didn’t happen soon enough to affect June CPI or PPI. Long-time readers know that I’ve been harping on inflation for a long time. The reason is simple: math. Annual “headline” CPI, which is the one we all … continue reading →