It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days. Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →
Another ugly open for markets as ES, down about 1.25%, completed its H&S Pattern we’ve been watching take shape. More grist for the bearish mill…as though we needed any more. continued for members… … continue reading →
After that vicious selloff, the market is now in wait and see mode – levitated by OPEX this Friday and next week’s FOMC meeting.continued for members… … continue reading →
Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money. It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision. Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup. continued for members… … continue reading →
WTI has reached our 200-day moving average target posted last month.This is a very significant move which, unfortunately, didn’t happen soon enough to affect June CPI or PPI. Long-time readers know that I’ve been harping on inflation for a long time. The reason is simple: math. Annual “headline” CPI, which is the one we all … continue reading →
Futures ramped higher overnight on yet another drubbing of VIX. It has all the hallmarks of a headfake, however, so caution is warranted for those following along – particularly if VIX holds 26. Our analog continues to suggest much lower prices in the weeks ahead. continued for members… … continue reading →
Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the most anticipated and consequential in years. It’s difficult to overstate its importance in terms of economic impact and, perhaps more importantly, Fed credibility. Yes, we care about whether the Fed hikes 50 or 75 basis points – though either is unlikely to put a dent in inflation. The … continue reading →