Q1 GDP Slumps Further

Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →

But It Looks Like a Rally…

Following a series of intraday ramps, futures shot up above the 10-day moving average as soon as the market closed. Bogus? Of course. But, the record will reflect (and the algos have responded to) a seemingly bullish move. Chase it at your own peril. Today’s tricks will include trying to get past the 10am New … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 23, 2022

Futures just backtested the 10-day moving average and our analog trendline, leaving the door open for a pullback – as long as VIX doesn’t get clobbered again. continued for members… … continue reading →

Oil: Back in the Groove

WTI spent May 2020 through Feb 2022 in a fairly well-defined channel (below, in white) as it recovered from its pandemic lows. It broke out on Mar 1, however, topping 100 and taking only 5 sessions to reach our 130 target which wasn’t schedule to happen until December.Since then, it’s seen a series of fits … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Jun 21, 2022

My apologies for today’s post being so late. Our webhosting company just now fixed the “network connectivity problem in one of [their] clusters.”  I’d be very upset about it except for the fact that this is the very first time in over two years that they’ve ever let me down. This post will be a … continue reading →

No Pressure

Futures are off about 2% following yesterday’s FOMC announcement and press conference – the closest we’ll probably ever get to a mea culpa – which was accompanied by the usual algo nonsense. Suffice it to say, traders have come to their senses and markets are once again reflecting the likelihood of the Fed tightening into … continue reading →

PPI Still Running Plenty Hot

PPI dropped just a bit from last month, registering 10.8% YoY (unadjusted) for May versus 10.9% for April and 11.5% for March.  The MoM tally was +0.8% for May versus 0.4% for April. The very slight drop in the YoY data is unlikely to assuage the Fed’s fears about inflation being out of control. But, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 13, 2022

ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →