Fed Whispering

The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession. continued for members… … continue reading →

BoJ Rolls the Dice

The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at or below zero for years. Their bet was that the suppression of interest rates (by purchasing Japan’s net issuance, the BoJ now owns over 50%) would offer sufficient protection against both inflation and the 263% debt:GDP – exacerbated by the rapid depreciation of the yen. Investors, … continue reading →

Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?

As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch. The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one. Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat. After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the … continue reading →

Crisis Averted

Based on how the market is reacting, inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed will pivot and easy money will be back in no time. Except, as we’ve been discussing, this is one of those weeks which almost always overreacts to the upside: FOMC meeting, OPEX, end of year, etc. As noted yesterday, the … continue reading →

All In a Day’s Work

Mystified by the fact that futures ramped higher overnight even though VIX is up over 6%? It’s all in a day’s work for the algos, especially on the eve of a critical Fed decision in an OPEX week at the end of the year when the S&P 500 is facing a bearish 10/20 cross. The … continue reading →

Powell on Deck

Powell’s speech will take on added importance following the release of this morning’s hotter than expected Q3 GDP print on the heels of a big ADP miss. Futures are flat after completing the backtest of the trend line from October we had been expecting. continued for members… … continue reading →

The Next Tests

Futures are flat following yesterday’s sharp selloff credited to the economic slowdown in China and hawkish Fedspeak. SPX closed below its 10-day moving average for the first time in 3 weeks, but is clinging to an important Fib level. continued for members… … continue reading →