updated: Aug 10, 2020

In our last update on currencies on Jul 22 [see: Currencies, a Turning Point] we noted that DXY and USDJPY were in danger of breaking down as EURUSD was approaching strong overhead resistance. Since then, DXY and USDJPY did, in fact, break down.

USDJPY had no trouble reaching our 105.20 interim downside target and, in fact, logged a 104 handle before bouncing sharply to help equity algos engineer a breakout.  As it approaches its July 22 levels at 107, however, it will run into heavy overhead resistance.

If the falling white channel holds as expected, it should set up an even sharper downturn in the weeks ahead. Can the euro rally sharply enough to offset the impact on stocks?

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