pebblewriter

Tag: Channel

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 15, 2024

    Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… (more…)

  • Is the Meltup Over?

    We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here.

    Will the market cooperate?

    NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 28, 2024

    Futures are off moderately in the lead up to tomorrow’s important PCE print.

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  • Back on Track

    Stocks rode NVDA’s coattails back into their rising channels yesterday, right back to the top of already overstretched chart patterns.

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  • On the Brink

    As we stated in yesterday’s update…

    …the downside case would be damaged considerably if NVDA were to come out with stellar earnings and outlook that boosted ES back into the rising yellow channel.

    NVDA’s stellar earnings and outlook did, in fact, boost NVDA back into its previously broken channel.

    The resulting algo spasm, however, boosted ES back to but not into its own broken channel.  It has stalled right there on the brink, leaving both bulls and bears scratching their heads.

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  • All Good Things…

    All good things must come to an end, or so the saying goes. For NVDA, it’s clear that the stock’s rally since the end of 2023 was following a very steep and narrow acceleration channel. These sorts of patterns feed upon themselves. As long as no one upsets the apple cart, there are outsized profits to be had. But, when things break, they tend to break in a big way.

    Futures are slipping ahead of the opening, with numerous downside targets coming into view. Of course, the downside case would be damaged considerably if NVDA were to come out with stellar earnings and outlook that boosted ES back into the rising yellow channel. FOMC minutes are also due out.

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  • Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

    Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%.

    It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than expected and retail sales much lower than expected – sounds like a recipe for stagflation. With the UK officially sliding into recession, can the US be far behind?

    Futures have given up some of their slight overnight gains.

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  • A Technical Recovery

    Thanks to VIX being hammered by 20% from yesterday’s highs, futures have recovered almost .50% – just enough to reach the bottom of the channel from which they broke down. SPX experienced a similar recovery late in the day, preserving (for now) the integrity of the channel that has produced a stunning 23% return since Oct 27.

    Stock prices almost always melt up into OPEX days. When they don’t, however, they often perform a nosedive instead. SPX remains long overdue. A lasting breakdown of the channel, such as we almost saw yesterday, would be the first sign.

    Another would be the 10Y shooting up past our 200-DMA target, which it came within 0.19% of yesterday. The bulls really need rates to settle back down – which will be very unlikely if oil/gas don’t reverse lower.

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  • Oh So Close…

    The S&P 500 came within 11 cents of 5,000 yesterday, marking a remarkable 43% run since the October 2022 lows and 22% return since the October 2023 lows.

    The month of February has a mixed track record over the past 10 years, with gains and losses evenly split. Stocks frequently pause at big, round numbers – which conflicts somewhat with the fact that stocks usually melt up into CPI prints.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 6, 2024

    Futures are slightly higher on the heels of VIX’s 7% collapse from yesterday’s highs (on a day when stocks were broadly lower.)

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