Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18. The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement. continued for members… … continue reading →
In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go. GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50. GC reached … continue reading →
Futures are up slightly as the FOMC begins its July meeting. But, it’s a continuation of the consolidation that began last week. continued for members… … continue reading →
A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year. RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 … continue reading →
Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16. The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card. continued for … continue reading →
In contrast to yesterday’s CPI print, PPI came in below estimates at 0.2% headline and core. Futures erased their sharp overnight losses which saw them nail our next downside target and now point to modest gains. A bounce here would be more convincing if SPX were to also reach its 50-day moving average. continued for … continue reading →
March CPI came in at 0.4% MoM for both headline and core (versus 0.3% expectations for both), hotter than expected for the second month in a row. YoY headline registered at 3.5% versus expectations of 3.4% and 3.2% in February and core came in at 3.8% (unchanged from February) versus expectations of 3.7%. As we … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →
NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts. ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out … continue reading →