The Bond Market Finally Woke Up

For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care.  The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular.  If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →

Update on Energy Markets: Feb 16, 2021

Texas, the energy capital of the US, is running short of energy. The cold snap is breaking records throughout the state, with temperatures so low that many wind and water turbines are frozen and not able to produce energy. Refineries are shut down. As of last night, over 3.5 million Texans are without power. Not … continue reading →

Mission Accomplished

In another obvious show of how easily this market can be manipulated, ES’ final bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern was busted in the final five minutes of trading yesterday. This morning, SPX’s H&S Pattern will also be busted with a burst higher in the wake of another disappointing jobs report. And all it took was … continue reading →

VIX: Just a Flesh Wound?

In Friday’s post VIX: Back From the Dead we noted that VIX had recovered from the breakdown below trend dating back to Nov 27. This morning, it’s testing overhead resistance from Jan 4 and, if it’s able to break through, will likely take on resistance from Dec 21 or even Oct 29. Bears might want … continue reading →

COVID-19: What to Expect

Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.]  We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →

Update on Oil and Gas: Jan 13, 2021

The last time we were this bearish on oil and gas was on October 3, 2018 [see: VIX Takes the Plunge.]  Our reasoning at the time: CL and RB [have] not only reached overhead resistance by our measure, but must deal with inflation that’s too high, bearish API data, another round of Trump tweeting, and … continue reading →

The Yield Curve Model: Dec 8, 2020

One of my favorite market indicators is our yield curve model. It has warned us several times in advance of significant correctionsthis year. Warnings over the past few years have included: July 16, 2018: The Yield Curve Update – We were a little early. SPX closed at 2798 that day, rose to 2940 before crashing … continue reading →

Update on Gold & Silver: Nov 30, 2020

We noted back on July 9 [see: Moment of Truth] that GC had reached our long-held 1823.60 target well ahead of schedule. From a charting standpoint, it should reverse here at its .886 Fib retracement. From a fundamental standpoint, of course, the fiscal picture suggests plenty of additional upside. Remember, it broke out of two … continue reading →