February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January. Shelter and gas price … continue reading →
Tag Archives: 10Y
In a move that surprised no one, the BoJ left their monetary policy unchanged unhinged. The policy statement still reflects the looney tunes, magical thinking that has always epitomized their decisions: they’ll raise rates when inflation reaches 2% – even though inflation is well above 2% and has been for over a year. Annualizing the … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply… …as VIX is being crushed in order to provide cover for about $2 trillion in options expiring today. We’ve been seeing this all week, with multiple downturns reversed by late-session assaults on VIX even as earnings and economic data have argued for lower stock prices. Chase this rally at your own … continue reading →
The Fed is supposedly reducing its “involvement” in the bond market. So, will they really sit on their hands now that the 10Y is testing the top of a channel dating back over 30 years? The charts suggest that if today’s high is taken out, the 10Y could easily reach 3.2%.If it reverses instead, stocks … continue reading →
It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way. Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →
In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →
Over the last 20 years, we’ve seen two yield curve (2s10s) inversions: essentially all of 2000 and Dec 2005-May 2007. The inversions themselves posed no issues for equity markets. It was the dramatic unwinding of those inversions that produced crashes.Eight months ago, we almost had another. 2s10s had fallen to a trend line connecting those … continue reading →