Are Things Really Better?

Under ordinary circumstances, a 2.3% MoM bump in Durable Goods orders would be very welcome – especially on the heels of last month’s -1.3% print. When inflation is a growing concern due to the Fed’s largesse, however, it complicates things. For instance, might it cause the Fed to take its foot off the gas? Not … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →

Bullard: Wait, Did I Say That?

Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →

Currencies: Tick-Tock

Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long. Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned … continue reading →

Bad News is Good Again

If yesterday’s better than expected ADP jobs data was bad news, then it stands to reason that today’s worse than expected DOL NFP print would be good for the market.  Well, that, and the 13% pounding VIX has taken… As it was hammered back below its SMA10, ES was ramped up above its SMA10. Funny … continue reading →

What’s the Holdup?

The Dow, the most easily and commonly manipulated index, has gone nowhere since failing to hold its 3.618 Fib extension at 34,430. It begs the question: what’s the holdup? Usually, when a closely followed index goes sideways for a while, it’s because an important moving average is moving into position for a backtest. But, is … continue reading →

PPI Confirms Hot Inflation

It comes as no surprise that PPI confirmed yesterday’s hot CPI print, coming in at a whopping 6.2%. We’ve been beating the inflation drum for so long, it feels a bit anticlimactic to acknowledge that it’s finally here and even slightly greater than we anticipated. As regular readers well know, I expected central bankers to … continue reading →

Blowout Inflation is Here

April CPI came in at 4.2%, a rate not seen since August 2008. CPI has topped 4.2% only twelve months in the past 30 years, with the bulk of those instances during Jan-Sep 2008 when CPI pushed above 10Y yields. The Fed has managed (so far) to keep a lid on yields, providing additional evidence … continue reading →

Biggest Jobs Disappointment in Over 20 Years

Blockbuster jobs data? Not so much. At 266K versus over 1MM consensus, it was the worst miss since 1998. The futures initially held the overnight ramp, taking their cues from VIX, which barely budged on the hugely disappointing print. But, VIX also hasn’t (yet) broken down the way it normally would if a full-court press … continue reading →