Charts I’m Watching: May 12, 2024

Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16. The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card. continued for … continue reading →

Update on Gold & Silver: Apr 17, 2024

Gold and silver both came within 1% of our upside targets for them earlier this week. With inflationary pressures once again top of mind, have they exhausted their upside potential?  We’ll update our long-term forecasts this morning. continued for members… … continue reading →

Premature Escalation

As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 8, 2024

Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →

Another Blowout Jobs Report

NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts. ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Apr 2, 2024

We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars. Aside from exposing the ludicrousness … continue reading →

CPI Hotter Than Expected

February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January. Shelter and gas price … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 8, 2024

Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain. This should put SPX at its … continue reading →

PCE in Line

January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December. In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at … continue reading →