Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. continued for members… … continue reading →
August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →
Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches. Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares. continued for members… … continue reading →
There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue. Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, … continue reading →
Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading. continued for members… … continue reading →
After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell. In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than … continue reading →
Second quarter GDP was revised downward from 2.4% to 2.1%, providing a much needed boost to bulls hoping for another Fed pause. Of course, it also provides bears with some evidence of an economic slowdown. Futures have been hovering around flat all morning. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. continued for members… … continue reading →