Bullard!

I remember Oct 15, 2014 like it was yesterday.   SPX had risen sharply on the back of the yen carry trade, popping through important Fib resistance at 1823. But, it had just broken trend line and channel support.  To make matters worse, it had just dropped through its SMA200 at 1905.The culprits? USDJPY had reversed … continue reading →

That Escalated Quickly!

It was just last Tuesday we asked “where’s the bounce?”  SPX had gapped lower and failed to rebound the way it always seems to has for the past year. We had watched a trend line dating back to Dec 29 (below, in red) break down, and were wondering about the small, white channel.  From Where’s … continue reading →

The Rally That VIX Built

As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.  It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →

Pulling Out All the Stops

When unexpected unpleasantness unfurls, you can count on central banks to pull out all the stops. Such is the case with the British election results which, like Brexit, have wreaked havoc on FX markets. EURGBP, having broken down from its rising red channel dating back to mid-2015, was well on its way to a perfectly … continue reading →

The Same, but Different

Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target.  Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight.  So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →

Striking Distance

This is day 8 of our membership promotion, running now through the end of the month for members and non-members alike. We’re offering a 25% rebate off the first month of Monthly and Quarterly auto-renew subscriptions. Annual memberships are available at a very substantial discount (rewarding those who act quickly!) Remember, the annual pricing is … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2017

As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout.  Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI.  Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… The daily … continue reading →

This is a Test

Yesterday, we got a taste of what happens to United Airlines passengers who are “disruptive and belligerent.”   In what is being described as one of the biggest PR fails in recent memory, United CEO Oscar Munoz defended the action taken to forcefully drag an Asian-American doctor from a flight that United had overbooked. No … continue reading →

Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →