Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →

Whistling Past the Graveyard

Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks.  That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →

One Way or Another

After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target.  It should be enough … continue reading →

Next Steps

We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

I remember 2011 like it was only five years ago.  William and Kate got hitched.  Adele was Rolling in the Deep.  And, Ben Bernanke, our intrepid hero, blamed Congress for the market’s meltdown.  Oh, and I launched pebblewriter.com. It was originally a Blogger site (pebblewriter.blogspot.com) and I did it mostly for fun, just to see … continue reading →

Why the Market Didn’t Correct Today

Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks.  And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels.  ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.  Brussels is the de … continue reading →

The Only Charts That Matter

Note: Final 24 hours for our celebratory Membership Special.  Annual memberships, normally $1,750, are being offered for only $640.42, less than $2/day for daily forecasts and live, intraday market commentary geared to helping you avoid and even profit from the volatility we’re seeing.  For more details and to sign up, CLICK HERE.  *  *  *  … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 12, 2013

The eminis are flirting with danger this morning, having ducked below a key channel midline (dashed, purple) but bouncing off a smaller channel bottom and another channel midline (dashed, white) near a .786 (1674.15) for a Gartley Pattern completion. The dollar is threatening to break out of the falling wedge…. And, the SPX is set … continue reading →