Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →

Whistling Past the Graveyard

Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks.  That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →

Next Steps

We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

I remember 2011 like it was only five years ago.  William and Kate got hitched.  Adele was Rolling in the Deep.  And, Ben Bernanke, our intrepid hero, blamed Congress for the market’s meltdown.  Oh, and I launched pebblewriter.com. It was originally a Blogger site (pebblewriter.blogspot.com) and I did it mostly for fun, just to see … continue reading →

Update on AAPL: Jul 31, 2013

It’s not often I get the chance to plug a future competitor.  As some of you know, my son Kyle is helping me out this summer.  He will graduate in December with an Economics major and Personal Financial Planning minor from Texas Tech University in lovely Lubbock, TX. In addition to performing many rather thankless … continue reading →

Update on USDJPY: Jun 18, 2013

The pair has dropped like a rock since the purple channel broke down on June 5.  It reached the .886 Fib as expected [CIW: Jun 6], then immediately bounced back above the neckline of the H&S Pattern it had completed (in red, below.) The following day, it fell back through that neckline, and has spent … continue reading →