Futures tanked overnight on news of Israel’s rocket attack on Iran, only to recover all their losses as we go to press. The latest retaliation is being characterized as a tit for tat. But it’s easy to imagine the Plunge Protection Team working overtime to calm markets by hammering VIX and WTI back down from … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →
We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars. Aside from exposing the ludicrousness … continue reading →
We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here. Will the market cooperate? NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7. continued for members… … continue reading →
Stocks rode NVDA’s coattails back into their rising channels yesterday, right back to the top of already overstretched chart patterns. continued for members… … continue reading →
Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive. … continue reading →
It has been a long time coming, with expectations of a rate cut ranging from “certainly” to “not a chance in hell.” Futures are taking their cues more from GOOGL and MSFT than the FOMC at the moment. Will we finally get a real backtest? Our potential downside targets are getting very lonely. continued for … continue reading →
To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →
These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility. More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →
Futures are essentially flat ahead of tomorrow’s important CPI print. continued for members… … continue reading →