This article was originally posted March 13 and will be updated on a regular basis. Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: April 3, 2020 Out of curiosity, I took a look at mortality rate trends in a few other countries. While some are clearly better than others, every … continue reading →
Another ramp job on awful economic news which pretty much everybody recognizes is much worse than the data indicate… …and a 46% spike in WTI futures in 4 days based on a Tweet referencing a deal: (1) which has yet to be confirmed by any of the parties; (2) could probably never get done; (3) … continue reading →
“No Joy” is an expression pilots use when they’re unable to see another plane, typically when they’re on a potential collision course. If you can’t spot it, you just might hit it. Like seeing a hilltop or radio tower dead ahead through clearing clouds, it can be fairly nerve-wracking. Given that today’s jobless claims were … continue reading →
S&P futures are off sharply, exceeding a 100-pt drop at their lows as the month- and quarter-end rebalancing has concluded and the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen. As expected, the rising white channel from the recent bottom has broken down and the less aggressive purple one is the next line of defense between here and … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, recovering 25 points from the overnight lows as the algos resume control.VIX continues to call the shots, as it has dropped through both the red neckline and the SMA20. Yet, it continues to bounce every time SPX/ES approach a breakout point, indicating that the bounce might … continue reading →
President Trump says he wants the country “opened up and just raring to go by Easter” — about 2 1/2 weeks from now. Some business leaders and titans of finance are publicly agreeing. Hopefully, this is nothing more than the latest ploy to goose the markets higher. The alternative is that he really plans on … continue reading →
First, let me address the comments in the news this morning that Italy has turned the corner on COVID-19. The number of new cases and deaths has fallen the last two days, which is to be expected with the tightening of quarantining standards. While this is encouraging, it’s important to note that we’ve seen daily … continue reading →
The FOMC is officially in the short-squeeze business. After futures came within 19 points (trading was halted there) of our next downside target – ES’ 1.618 Fib extension at 2155 – the Fed unleashed QEinfinity. In other words, they’re prepared to spend whatever it takes to keep stocks from melting down any further. At the … continue reading →
The Dow serves as a pretty good barometer of the seriousness with which our political leaders have treated the COVID-19 crisis. As it has approached the 2016 election levels, there has been a discernible shift in the tone of comments and measures undertaken by the president, congress and the Fed. Here are just a few … continue reading →
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In our last dedicated update on the Dow [see: July 2019 Update], we noted the intersection of a number of overhead resistance features in its chart and offered some thoughts on its downside potential if it managed to reverse. Note that our 18974 target represents a backtest of the red channel from which DJIA broke … continue reading →