Friday’s onslaught easily reached our first downside target (two days late) and very nearly reached our second (two days early.)I’m continuing to work on the big picture forecast [ see: Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts.] In the meantime, here are today’s charts and a reminder of our targets. continued for members… … continue reading →
TNX reached our 24.98 target yesterday, but ZN came up just a bit short of its 123’285 target. This morning’s action has remedied that, as ZN just reached 123’295 — the target we first charted last May [see: Bonds and Value.] As we discussed yesterday the delay in reaching these targets, while tiresome, has provided … continue reading →
In speaking with CNBC in the wake of the Fed’s decision to cave on any further rate hikes, Richard Fisher said what many of us have felt for years. “We created a one-way street…all of our markets are hooked on this opioid of cheap money. How do you wean them from that after all those … continue reading →
Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →
Pretty quiet here in the pre-market. Futures have been mostly flat for the past few hours after yesterday’s failed attempt to hold the 1.272.The best allegory I’ve seen this morning is AAPL, which has been riding its SMA5 200 every day since breaking out above our 178.46 target. Yesterday, just shy of its SMA200, it … continue reading →
Yesterday’s death cross in VIX is officially in the books (the yellow arrow.) So, it’s no surprise that ES added another 10 points in the after-hours.Look for it to backtest the 1.272 it just broke through (2845.11) as soon as the SMA5 200 arrives on the scene. There are potential pitfalls ahead, of course. The … continue reading →
This morning, VIX’s 50-DMA passed below its 200-DMA — a death cross. If it holds, this marks the end of the period following the golden cross on Nov 1. For the uninitiated, a death cross is typically bearish for VIX, bullish for stocks. We must use a qualifier because death and golden crosses in VIX … continue reading →
The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging. It think they’ve got it wrong. What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →
VIX has been crushed by 64% since Mnuchin convened the Plunge Protection Team. Despite its rising channel and rising wedge breaking down, ES made higher highs yesterday. In other words, the VIX games continue. But, with OPEX and quad-witching soon in the rear-view, buyback blackouts approaching, the BREXIT deadline just ahead, and bonds indicating equity … continue reading →
The wait continues, as we’re getting enough push from VIX, USDJPY and CL during the after-hours to keep SPX/ES aloft, but not quite enough to register a breakout. With VIX dropping toward Fib support, push has come to shove. continued for members… … continue reading →