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PCE came in hotter than expected: 4.9% versus 4.7% expected/previous. Futures, which were up nicely overnight, are back in the red and testing the June lows again on the last day of Q3 continued for members… … continue reading →
The third Q2 GDP estimate came in the same as last time: -0.6%. Q1 GDP was unchanged at -1.6%. In other words, 2 quarters of negative GDP – a recession in most folks’ minds. The deflator ticked higher to 9.0%, making a pretty good case for stagflation. The only missing ingredient is worsening employment numbers… … continue reading →
That didn’t take long. After watching the pound drop below its 1985 all-time lows, the Bank of England decided 10.1% inflation isn’t that big a deal after all. This is disastrous policy piled on top of disastrous policy. But, it was enough for the pound to recover – at least for now.And, because if one … continue reading →
As we’ve discussed several times over the past month, VIX’s trend line from Jan 24 was overdue for a revisit. Now that we’ve got it, will VIX nosedive as usual or are we in for something decidedly less bullish? The algos are geared up for a bounce. continued for members… … continue reading →
For months, VIX has facilitated higher equity prices – plumbing new lows, breaking down, refusing to rise in cases of obvious market distress. Today, it reached a trend line off the previous highs, all of which corresponded with sizeable bounces in the equity markets. It’s an extremely important test for bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply this morning as important support for various instruments/indices/currencies begins to break down. continued for members.. … continue reading →
There’s a great scene in the classic comedy Blazing Saddles where Jim, an alcoholic gunslinger known as the Waco Kid, downs half a bottle of booze. Sheriff Bart is alarmed, “a man drinks like that…he is gonna die.” Jim takes a beat and delivers the perfect deadpan response, “when?” This market of ours is a … continue reading →
The ramp is in full bloom this morning in advance of the FOMC’s next rate hike. Yet, futures remain well below the H&S neckline and moving averages are all aligned bearishly. As we’ve noted all month, the algos are hanging in there for one reason: VIX suppression. Stay frosty. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days. Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →
Futures are off again this morning in the lead up to the FOMC meeting. continued for members… … continue reading →