Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: September 2, 2020 This is an excellent summary of where we are and why. More importantly, it offers simple, clear solutions to America’s coronavirus disaster. Reprinted from The New Yorker, September 2, 2020. We Can Solve the Coronavirus-Test Mess Now – If … continue reading →
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ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight. The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →
After a precision tag of its channel bottom yesterday, SPX has an important decision to make. It’s complicated by today’s quad-witching, sometimes the scene of a massive ramp job. This one is different, however, as we’ve detailed in studying the price action of multiple important factors. With six weeks to go until the election, we’ll … continue reading →
Let me get this straight. In answering a question as to how the Fed’s plan for 2%+ inflation will help the average guy on the street, Powell explained that Fed wants higher inflation so it can get higher interest rates so it has someplace higher from which to reduce rates when the next economic downturn … continue reading →
It turns out that the American consumer isn’t quite as healthy as many pundits believed. August retail sales came in at a 0.6% MoM increase versus 1.0% expectations, and July’s 1.2% spike was revised down to 0.9%. Congress could even take action…if the market tanks. As expected USDJPY has now joined the robust list of … continue reading →
The great thing about channels is that they tell you quite precisely when a trend change has occurred. The falling white channel seen on ES was tested just prior to the open yesterday. A simple smackdown on VIX and it was off to the races. As we noted at the time, ES’ 10-DMA had dropped … continue reading →
The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong? continued for members… … continue reading →
Let’s talk about inflation. At 0.4%, both headline and core handily beat consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Why? This morning’s CPI release is a treasure trove of information regarding price action in the general economy. On an annual basis, energy tanked and food soared. MoM, food was still strong while energy and used cars soared … continue reading →
Maybe the Fed had it right, leaving the door open to higher inflation. Though August headline PPI came in slightly higher than expected at 0.3% vs 0.2%, core PPI rose 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. S&P futures sold off 8 points on the news, but the algos had other ideas. As is often the case, “someone” … continue reading →
S&P 500 futures have bounced 77 points off their 50-DMA overnight lows, a substantial sum but not yet enough to break out of ES’ falling wedge which would be tested at 3380-3385. It raises the question: is this a garden variety pause or is the excitement over? continued for members… … continue reading →
S&P futures are off a little over 4% since our Correction Warning post on Aug 28. As it turned out, we were slightly early. ES didn’t top out until three sessions later in spite of the multiple warning signs we detailed at the time. Most significantly, ES/SPX both broke down below their Feb 20 highs … continue reading →