Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: June 24, 2020 Presented without comment…charts highlighting when each state below “re-opened.” UPDATE: June 17, 2020 On March 12, our local school district closed its doors after a fifth presumed case of coronavirus was detected in our Boston suburb of … continue reading →
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Futures are up sharply on a better than expected jobs report: up 4.8 million, and the unemployment rate dropping to 11.1%. Initial claims came in at 1.43 million, with continuing claims rising slightly to 19.3 million. The direction didn’t surprise anyone, but the numbers surprised most. The reopening of most of the country over the … continue reading →
Futures have erased 40 points of overnight losses on the latest Statline vaccine news, this time involving Pfizer. As usual, it’s early stages on a limited number of trials. And, as usual, it’s coming in the hour just prior to the market open after futures had dropped below significant support. We’ve seen this movie before. … continue reading →
It’s not that Q2 hasn’t been kind to investors. The S&P 500 is still up 39% from its March 23 lows (40% for the Dow, 49% for COMP.) But, it’s impossible to ignore how stocks got here and wonder whether they’ll continue to dance with the forces that brought them. Moreover, what happens if the … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly this morning as we glide into the quarter end on a holiday-shortened, low-volume week. VIX’s triangle perfectly illustrates the technical picture: attempts to break out have been beaten back, while threats to break down have routinely been rebuffed. It’s exactly what one would expect when the goal is to maintain positive … continue reading →
Futures tested the important 2.618 Fib extension four times since yesterday’s close, bailing on the upper bound of a rising wedge with the last tag. This is a bearish pattern which, combined with numerous other bearish charts, still signals elevated risk. But, we’ve been beating that drum for a while. Today, I’ll focus on the … continue reading →
Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →
As we slowly make our way toward the end of Q2, we continue to see tests of important support. They are usually followed by sharp bounces despite the growing evidence that a selloff is right around the corner.Will today be the day the market finally takes the plunge? continued for members… … continue reading →
When does “it’s over” mean it’s not over? When the market plunges 65 points, of course. The 2% hiccup came when Fox’s Martha MacCallum asked Trump advisor Peter Navarro whether John Bolton’s claims that Trump delayed imposing sanctions on China over its policy of interning Uighur Muslims would jeopardize the China trade deal. Navarro, fresh … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday. Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices. Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental … continue reading →
It would be unusual in normal times for stocks to drop on OPEX or a Quad Witching Friday. Given the massive stimulus inflating the markets, these are far from normal times. ES broke out of the falling channel it’s been in since June 10, primarily on the VIX breakdown and oil breakout we’ve been expecting. … continue reading →