The market’s reaction to yesterday’s FOMC decision was, quite simply, overdone. Equity indices were initially firm, but popped on a swift drop in vol. Did lowering the amount of QT help? Perhaps. But, Powell readily admitted that FOMC members have no idea where employment and inflation are headed. Inflation estimates are higher and growth is … continue reading →
Futures are modestly higher as we approach the open and an FOMC decision which will hopefully shed light on the Fed’s thoughts about the economy. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately on the eve of the next FOMC rate decision. continued for members… … continue reading →
Retail sales and Empire State Mfg both came in worse than expected, meaning there’s an improvement to the odds of a fed rate cut – or so the thinking goes. Markets were off a bit over the weekend, due in part to Bessent’s comparison of current conditions to 2006-2007, but the weak economic data brought … continue reading →
We’ve seen countless overnight rallies over the past month. Some of them carried over into the regular sessions, but most of them were faded. Yesterday’s plunge took SPX all the way to a key channel midline and Fib retracement and was followed by a 50-pt overnight ramp job, leaving ES at a key overhead resistance. … continue reading →
Ordinarily, investors might prefer lower CPI and PPI. But, so far, the market hasn’t reacted well. Why not? Sure, lower prices might give the Fed room to reduce interest rates and thereby goose the stock market. But, you have to ask “why” prices aren’t going up as quickly as before. Is it because corporations don’t … continue reading →
CPI drifted lower in February, coming in below consensus at 0.2% MoM and 2,8% YoY. Core was also 0.2% MoM and registered 3.1% YoY. The print was in line with our model, which also suggested a bounce yesterday, Futures, initially up 1.5%, are indicating a still strong 1% higher. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are flat after another ugly day left multiple indices at their next downside targets. continued for members… … continue reading →
Just about every investor I know has owned NVDA for a while and has made a pretty penny on it. So, it pained me to deliver the charts’ warning back on Feb 27. From NVDA: Good Enough? Judging from its price action overnight, NVDA’s earnings and outlook were good enough. As we approach the open, however, … continue reading →
Futures are tumbling again following a substantial bounce on Friday. China has issued retaliatory tariffs, adding to the chaos Trump’s trade war has unleashed. continued for members… … continue reading →