This article was originally posted March 13 and will be updated on a regular basis. Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: May 10, 2020 As some of you know, my daughter was in Rome for a semester abroad when the coronavirus breakout occurred in northern Italy. I … continue reading →
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In 2009, in the depths of the GFC with the S&P 500 tagging 666, about 11.9% of Americans lived in poverty. In 2020, with the S&P 500 having recently reached 3393 after trillions in central bank intervention, the rate is estimated to be 12.4%, with projections of over 15% depending on how bad unemployment gets.Black … continue reading →
It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative. Gee, could 25% … continue reading →
I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.] The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →
Q1 GDP was revised down to a negative 5% from 4.8% as Durable Goods came in at -19.4%, the worst since the financial crisis. Naturally, futures are up sharply……about equidistant between the important 200-DMA and the equally important 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93. It’s decision time for the men behind the curtain. Credibility has already … continue reading →
If you liked yesterday’s market action, you’re loving today so far. Like yesterday, the latest overnight ramp job has put ES well above its 200-DMA. Like yesterday, now we get to find out whether it will hold. It didn’t yesterday. The white acceleration channel broke down at the close, taking ES and SPX back below … continue reading →
Having attended a few football games there over the years, I can attest to how big and how loud UT’s Royal Memorial Stadium can be, especially if the Aggies or Red Raiders are in town. As official COVID-19 deaths in the US reach 100,000 today, I think about how that many souls would look if … continue reading →
Futures are up 40 points off their overnight lows as VIX was hammered after pushing briefly above its 10-DMA. It’s not unusual for charts to take on a bearish tone going into a holiday weekend. In a low volume environment such as this, however, it’s all too common for trends to reverse, currencies to pop, … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly this morning as most every chart we watch are within striking distance of their 200-DMA. It’s no surprise that this is happening just ahead of a market holiday. Even DB – a stock many have left for dead and one of my favorite canaries in the coal mine — gapped higher … continue reading →
Dallas Fed president just gave a nice preview of the Fed’s April minutes due out later today. The highlight: we’ll need to do more. It’s the same message we’re hearing from all the FOMC members, and the same message the market is taking to heart as the Fed’s balance sheet explodes higher on its way … continue reading →
April housing starts fell by 30.2%, the biggest single-month drop since records were first kept in 1959. Single-family fell 25.4% while multifamily fell by a stunning 40.5%. Futures, which are holding their breakout status after backtesting the SMA100 overnight, ignored the results. continued for members… … continue reading →