Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: June 24, 2020 Presented without comment…charts highlighting when each state below “re-opened.” UPDATE: June 17, 2020 On March 12, our local school district closed its doors after a fifth presumed case of coronavirus was detected in our Boston suburb of … continue reading →
Reply
The producer price index missed this morning, coming in at -0.2% versus consensus and prior read of +0.4%. Core also missed at -0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%. Although the market has certainly staged a V-shaped recovery, someone forgot to check with the economy. Not to worry, because Gilead was quickly out with a press release … continue reading →
Algos continue to prop up stocks. This morning, VIX tested its 200-day moving average yet again, setting the stage for SPX to join ES in completing a golden cross. It will either be a springboard to new highs or, as we discussed on Tuesday [see: The Big Picture], a nasty headfake. It’s another moment of … continue reading →
Few charting patterns receive as much attention as the death cross and the golden cross. In a death cross, the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, suggesting lower prices ahead. In a golden cross, the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day, portending higher prices. As we marvel at the speed and … continue reading →
Another VIX-inspired, holiday weekend ramp in the futures in the face of dismal headlines… What a shock. Not. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply on a better than expected jobs report: up 4.8 million, and the unemployment rate dropping to 11.1%. Initial claims came in at 1.43 million, with continuing claims rising slightly to 19.3 million. The direction didn’t surprise anyone, but the numbers surprised most. The reopening of most of the country over the … continue reading →
Futures have erased 40 points of overnight losses on the latest Statline vaccine news, this time involving Pfizer. As usual, it’s early stages on a limited number of trials. And, as usual, it’s coming in the hour just prior to the market open after futures had dropped below significant support. We’ve seen this movie before. … continue reading →
It’s not that Q2 hasn’t been kind to investors. The S&P 500 is still up 39% from its March 23 lows (40% for the Dow, 49% for COMP.) But, it’s impossible to ignore how stocks got here and wonder whether they’ll continue to dance with the forces that brought them. Moreover, what happens if the … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly this morning as we glide into the quarter end on a holiday-shortened, low-volume week. VIX’s triangle perfectly illustrates the technical picture: attempts to break out have been beaten back, while threats to break down have routinely been rebuffed. It’s exactly what one would expect when the goal is to maintain positive … continue reading →
Futures tested the important 2.618 Fib extension four times since yesterday’s close, bailing on the upper bound of a rising wedge with the last tag. This is a bearish pattern which, combined with numerous other bearish charts, still signals elevated risk. But, we’ve been beating that drum for a while. Today, I’ll focus on the … continue reading →
Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →