Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: June 24, 2020 Presented without comment…charts highlighting when each state below “re-opened.” UPDATE: June 17, 2020 On March 12, our local school district closed its doors after a fifth presumed case of coronavirus was detected in our Boston suburb of … continue reading →
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NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →
At 1.186 million, initial claims came in well below estimates of 1.46 million. Futures rallied on the news, but are still slightly in the red after breaking below trend overnight.All eyes are on tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll data which Trump has already characterized as “big jobs numbers.” Will it be enough? At what point will the … continue reading →
ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago. At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →
Aside from the higher highs which busted ES’ H&S Pattern yesterday, not much has changed. Congress and the Trump administration are still fiddling while America burns, failing to come up with a package that could keep millions of businesses and families from slipping into bankruptcy and foreclosure. Futures are off about 15 points, driven primarily … continue reading →
Head & Shoulders patterns are fairly reliable harbingers of downturns. The one which has been setting up on ES for the past couple of weeks promised a 100+ point plunge.It was just now busted by none other than VIX – the algos’ favorite signal – which caused ES’ right shoulder to marginally (by 1.50 points) … continue reading →
Yes, it was impressive. AAPL, FB, GOOGL and AMZN delivered big time. Yet, AMZN, the one that was best positioned to clean up, hasn’t yet broken above a key Fib level, let alone the top of the 20-year old channel which marked the July 13 reversal. If it does, fine, bears should prepare for a … continue reading →
Will the addition of another “thinking about” keep stocks aloft until the next FOMC meeting? Futures aren’t looking so hot, perhaps because WTI has now joined RBOB in breaking trend, 10Y yields have gapped lower, and VIX broke out of its falling wedge. The algos are not happy. continued for members… … continue reading →
The holding pattern continues. Futures levitated overnight to the gently falling 10-day moving average yet again. And, yet again, VIX provided the precise guidance the algos required.The longer this goes on, the more we begin to resemble the Nikkei, with preset moves prescribed by a central bank: support and resistance predetermined by committee. It makes … continue reading →
How would you like to be on the FOMC, saddled with the messaging job from hell? You want to boost consumer confidence and business activity, but not so much that the markets get a whiff of inflation and interest rates shoot higher as debt spirals out of control. You want a strong dollar to stave … continue reading →
In the latest 30-pt ramp job, ES ran out of juice at a backtest of its 10-day moving average – not exactly a bullish move. This would leave SPX with a backtest of its own, suggestive of the additional downside Friday’s session left on the table. It also suggests a nice little Head & Shoulders … continue reading →