PCE Just High Enough

Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 29, 2023

Futures are up sharply in advance of the open after a $10 billion GM share repurchase announcement and a GDP revision that did nothing to dissuade algos from the notion that the Fed will soon be cutting rates VIX is plumbing new lows. The market is rapidly running out of room for a pullback/backtest of … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 27, 2023

Futures are off slightly on low volume in advance of a lot of important economic data: tomorrow’s consumer confidence, Wednesday’s GDP, Thursday’s personal income and PCE, and Friday’s ISM manufacturing. We’ve been wondering whether a pullback – any pullback – was in the cards before the end of the year. With VIX being hammered Friday … continue reading →