Reply
Welcome to another day of churn, with breakdowns averted and breakouts merely head fakes (at least so far) as we continue to play cat and mouse with the 50-DMA. continued for members… … continue reading →
As we wait to see if the latest tag of the SMA50 results in yet another bounce (8th in a row) to new highs……we turn our attention to currencies, gold and silver – which are all at inflection points. Gold, for instance, is threatening to break down again. continued for members… … continue reading →
ES tagged our 50-DMA target late yesterday. It was one of the least surprising outcomes one could imagine. In fact, SPX and ES have tagged or come close tagging their SMA50 (the purple line below) eight times over the past eight months. Central banks have practically guaranteed this outcome ever since they enabled the market … continue reading →
August CPI came in slightly below expectations, with the monthly headline figure at 0.3% versus last month’s 0.5% and the annual figure at 5.3% versus July’s 5.4%. To be clear, these are still problematic numbers and remain completely out of sync with artificially low interest rates. Only two categories in Schedule A came in at … continue reading →
On March 18, 2020, VIX topped out at 85.47, the highest level since the GFC. It didn’t stay there long, as central bankers around the world swung into action to save their respective stock markets. But, its peak was to become the start of a well-defined falling channel (below in white) which has consistently marked … continue reading →
Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print… More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices. In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →
The ECB will reduce its purchases of bonds under its $2 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) enacted last year. There’s no word on exactly how much it will reduce its purchases, nor any word on whether the slowdown will continue past the initial stage. But, it was very entertaining listening to CNBC’s Steve Liesman trip … continue reading →
S&P 500 futures are soft this morning, flirting with their first drop through the 10-DMA in three weeks. continued for members… … continue reading →
BTC tumbled sharply earlier today, coming within 400 of the 42,500 target we discussed on Aug 25 [see More of the Same]: BTC reversed just short of its .618 Fib. Although the cloud remains bullish and it’s above all of its SMAs, it feels tenuous to me. I think we get a cloud backtest here, … continue reading →
Futures are flat going into this morning’s open – a marked departure from the usual holiday weekend ramp jobs we’ve seen over the years. Even so, the care with which the futures have been managed is just as laughable. We’ll pick up this morning where we left off Friday on the topic of how the … continue reading →