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Futures are off sharply this morning, suggesting a break in the upside momentum. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately on the first trading day after what was a torrid November. Bears might take some comfort from the overbought Dow, which has reached Fibonacci and channel resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →
Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply in advance of the open after a $10 billion GM share repurchase announcement and a GDP revision that did nothing to dissuade algos from the notion that the Fed will soon be cutting rates VIX is plumbing new lows. The market is rapidly running out of room for a pullback/backtest of … continue reading →
If you floored the gas pedal in your car, the acceleration would be quite apparent. As your speed climbed higher and higher, though, the rate of acceleration would eventually decline until you reached your car’s maximum speed. No longer accelerating, you would still be traveling at an unsafe speed. Inflation is a lot like that. … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on low volume in advance of a lot of important economic data: tomorrow’s consumer confidence, Wednesday’s GDP, Thursday’s personal income and PCE, and Friday’s ISM manufacturing. We’ve been wondering whether a pullback – any pullback – was in the cards before the end of the year. With VIX being hammered Friday … continue reading →
WTI reached our 74 target back on Nov 19, even overshooting it slightly before rebounding to backtest its 200-day moving average. All of this was as expected, as is the latest tumble. We sympathize with the fundamental analysts who can’t square these price movements with the very upsetting geopolitical unrest. But, oil/gas prices are some … continue reading →
The Fed will release minutes today, ostensibly providing some insight into their recent thinking. I tend not to get too excited about these, as they are even more carefully parsed that Powell’s remarks to ensure investors algos don’t panic and run for the exits. But, the Fed doesn’t really want a knee jerk meltup that … continue reading →
More of the same… continued for members… … continue reading →
Wash, rinse, repeat. continued for members… … continue reading →