Update on USDJPY: Sep 29, 2023

We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade. The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Sep 28, 2023

The currency pairs on which we focus reached our long-time targets on Tuesday. While good for the ego, it’s always a mixed bag for yours truly. It means a broad reassessment of the path forward at a time when the signposts are not terribly clear. First, a recap. EURUSD indeed reversed after reaching our 1.1273 … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Sep 27, 2023

Futures have rebounded modestly following yesterday’s drubbing. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index’s plunge from 108.7 to 103 did little to convince investors that the consumer is still doing well. Perhaps the more important question: will it outweigh, in the minds of FOMC members, the stellar 0.9% increase in August for core capital goods? continued … continue reading →

The Confidence Game

Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →