Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.] We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →
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For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care. The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular. If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →
Fed officials managed to talk stocks higher yesterday, but the underlying question remains: have they already lost control of inflation and interest rates? At 3.4%, Durable Orders more than tripled expectations. While GDP, initial claims and prices all came in at or better than forecast. Not surprisingly, interest rates shot higher – reaching key overhead … continue reading →
It clearly didn’t matter to stocks when 10Y futures broke down last month from the appreciation channel dating back to May 2018. ZN’s decline was gentle, contained. And, weren’t higher rates a sign that the economy was recovering and inflation picking up as desired? Powell repeats this mantra every chance he gets. Besides, stocks have … continue reading →
Despite numerous head fakes, ES’ H&S Pattern has completed and provides a road map to some important tests of our downside targets.continued for members… … continue reading →
Better late than never… ES tagged our 3862.25 a little after midnight last night and is enjoying a slight bounce……courtesy of VIX’s pullback from its SMA100. Remember, VIX’s IH&S targets north of the SMA200. continued for members … continue reading →
Futures are up nicely after yesterday’s VIX-inspired stick save Recall that ES had completed a bearish H&S Pattern and VIX had completed a bearish Inverted H&S Pattern at the opening bell. Futures were off over 30 points and heading lower. If VIX’s IH&S had held, ES’s pattern targeted 3832 – a drop of 3.2% from … continue reading →
After feeling like the lone inflation alarmist for the past few months, I find myself in the midst of a growing chorus which now recognizes the Fed’s conundrum. Building inflationary pressures are now obvious to all. What isn’t clear is whether the Fed’s nonchalance re rising rates is real or feigned. And, if feigned, at … continue reading →
Retail sales soared by 5.3% (vs 1.2% est.) in January. Stripping out auto sales, it was even higher at 5.9% (vs 1.0%.) The control number, which strips out food, auto sales, building material stores and gas stations, was up a whopping 6.0%. Note that gas receipts’ 4% MoM increase was all price change: EIA data … continue reading →
Texas, the energy capital of the US, is running short of energy. The cold snap is breaking records throughout the state, with temperatures so low that many wind and water turbines are frozen and not able to produce energy. Refineries are shut down. As of last night, over 3.5 million Texans are without power. Not … continue reading →
Thinking of the late great Chick Corea this morning as I survey the sky-high equities market… Futures have regained about half their overnight losses, spurred by a timely dip in VIX and pop in 10Y yields (testing Monday’s highs.) continued for members… … continue reading →