Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: October 20, 2020 Herd Immunity: Doing the Math In June, we observed that the US had embarked on a herd immunity approach to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. With little public discussion or debate, the US has embarked on a herd immunity … continue reading →
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Few stocks exemplify the current excesses of the stock market better than TSLA. In our last posted update on Jan 30 [see: TSLA on Autopilot?] we noted that it was approaching the top of a channel and a potential Fibonacci reversal point at 653.26 [131.15 post-split.] We noted at the time: If it reverses here, … continue reading →
It’s a big day for economic data. The GDP second estimate came in on target at 33.1%, as did the GDP deflator at 3.6%. Durable orders beat at 1.3% versus 0.8% forecast. But, it was Initial Claims at 778K versus consensus of 735K that necessitated a quick dip to yesterday’s lows in VIX. As a … continue reading →
So…Janet Yellen again. The market seems quite pleased with the idea of a dovish Treasury Secretary paired with a dovish Fed. Is this the end of equity corrections? continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s enjoyable to nail a target like ES did last Thursday… …and VIX did on the 9th. It’s a lot less enjoyable to see ES and VIX tag those very same targets over, and over, and over again. But, it’s exactly the sort of action we often get around holidays when the algos are at … continue reading →
The issue isn’t whether the Treasury is ending $454 billion in special lending programs on schedule on Dec 31. It’s that there was obviously a breakdown in communications and, apparently, a disagreement between the Treasury and the Fed. In other words, Mom and Dad are fighting. The dollar’s reaction has been muted so far, as … continue reading →
ES reached our first downside target overnight and, depending on whether or not DXY can extend its bounce and how much effort goes into suppressing VIX, could be in for more. Spiraling coronavirus infection and hospitalization rates in many states and countries are once again starting to get their share of attention. continued for members… … continue reading →
Today’s levitation is brought to you by VIX which, by plunging below its Fibonacci .886 retracement at 22.66, has once again convinced the algos that it’s a wonderful time to buy stocks. Of course, that was in the low-volume pre-market. Carbon-based investors trading in the regular session don’t always agree.Meanwhile, the financial press (and the … continue reading →
After being stuck in a textbook triangle pattern for almost six months, XLF finally broke out last week. We noted its having reached overhead resistance a few weeks ago [see: Yield Curve Model – Correction Imminent.] At the time, the 2s10s was threatening a breakout which, per our model, suggested a downturn for equities in … continue reading →
Almost 8 months ago I posted our first outlook on BTC [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.] We noted at the time that the FOMC was “officially in the short-squeeze business” after ES came within 19 points (trading was halted there) of our 2155 target and the Dow was set to test the Nov 8, 2016 (election … continue reading →
I heard two quotes in the financial news this morning that caught my attention. First: that about 30% of Americans will end up getting infected with the coronavirus. Second: the S&P 500 is on pace for the 5th best month in the last 30 years. These statements are incongruous, at best. Yet, IMO, it’s more … continue reading →