It’s only been three weeks since the stock market melted down [see: Rome is Burning] and only one week since the bond market melted down [see: Bond Market Debacle.] Since then, both have recovered . The S&P 500 has risen over 700 points and the 10Y has shed 20 bps. So, the worst is over, … continue reading →
Futures are slightly positive in the pre-market after a strong finish last week. Readers will be shocked to learn that the administration’s announcement that hundreds of deals had been struck with trade partners might have been slightly “exaggerated.” continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures have been all over the map overnight, but are currently flat as algos try to figure out which superpower leader is lying through his teeth about trade negotiations. continued for members… … continue reading →
If we believe the narrative emanating from the White House, we might take the recent rally as a sign that the market is all better. Trump has softened his disastrous tariff rhetoric and is listening to his better angels (or at least the billionaires who got him reelected.) So is the coast actually clear? It’s … continue reading →
It was the market, again. This time, as the last, Trump made a seemingly offhand comment which was designed to put out the fire that he started. It was done in the low volume after-hours, when the impact would be greatest. And, it forced a great many offside traders to cover their shorts. Like last … continue reading →
The 2s10s is still broken out. The 10Y is still broken out. The USD is still under pressure. Yet futures are up 50 points. At least one of these things is wrong. Thankfully, chart patterns offer a hint. continued for members… … continue reading →
While tech troubles are serious enough, the bond market is being rattled by Trump’s escalating attacks on Fed Chair Jay Powell. Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump is actively seeking ways to fire Powell ahead of the end of his term in May 2026. The 10Y is testing its 100-day moving average again, sending the 2s10s … continue reading →
ES is up slightly while DJIA futures are down over 500 points on the meltdown in UNH.Meanwhile, Trump — who appointed Jay Powell in 2017 — is calling for Powell to be terminated. “Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete … continue reading →
Mortgage applications fell short, but retail sales beat and industrial production slumped. All in all, a mixed bag that supports the stagflation narrative. The algos aren’t happy. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are flat after stocks again failed to build on last week’s overdone rally. And, don’t look now, but SPX’s death cross finally occurred yesterday. continued for members… … continue reading →