Happy Anniversary! Today marks 90 years to the day since shares of Hatry Group were suspended by the London Stock Exchange (Sep 20, 1929.) The company collapsed, crashing the London Stock Exchange. The Dow began its 89% crash a month later. * * * On September 20, 1929, the London Stock Exchange suspended shares of … continue reading →
If you blinked, you missed yesterday’s 25-pt correction and 33-pt recovery during Powell’s testimony. It was made possible by an equally speedy 8% spike and reversal in VIX. The selloff continued overnight and VIX is now testing an important channel line for the second time.SPX/ES have very little room to go on the upside before … continue reading →
More data for the hawks, this morning, as starts and permits both handily beat expectations. Which data, exactly, will the Fed depend on in order to cut rates?Futures are off a few points… …(barely) breaking out of a falling channel at the insistence of a slumping VIX. continued for members… … continue reading →
Growing up in Texas, you saw a lot of these guys. They wore clean, polished boots, had the oversized belt buckle. Maybe even a genuine cowboy hat. But, they hauled paddle boards in their duallies and wouldn’t know which end of a bull to milk (not recommended.) Likewise, Monday’s action had all the appearances of … continue reading →
If you’ve been under a rock lately, you might be surprised to find oil 10% higher, the world on the brink of a new Gulf War and the stock market not ramping to new highs over the weekend.While higher oil prices are usually a net positive for stocks, this is one of those stark exceptions. … continue reading →
The past few days have seen an escalation in the battle between market forces and Trump’s tweet-driven algos. Trump and his minions are desperate to see stocks make new all-time highs and have issued a steady stream of breathless trade and tax-related pronouncements possessing little substance but great influence on the algos. The algos have, … continue reading →
It is perhaps fitting that SPX has waited until today to peak again. Today is Mario Draghi’s last press conference as president of the ECB but also as presider over the great monetary experiment which has kept the euro zone on life support for the past 10 years. SPX is poised to reach 3004.51, our … continue reading →
Continuing the string of data arguing against a rate cut, PPI and Core PPI both came in hotter than expected. Core increased 2.3% from August 2018.Futures, which are in levitation mode after a sharp intraday recovery yesterday, barely noticed. Virtually nothing has changed from yesterday’s forecast. Though, we have an important EIA report coming out … continue reading →
Most of the signs are not very bearish. We haven’t had a decent reversal candle. VIX is in the basement. The moving averages are all wrong. But, our analog says otherwise. So, let’s be bearish, shall we? continued for members… … continue reading →
The last time I felt compelled to use this title for a post, SPX plunged 105 points off its intraday highs within the next 24 hours. This one should be more violent. * * * All the talk about the necessity of a 50 bps rate cut (100 bps according to the president) got me … continue reading →