COVID-19: What to Expect

Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.]  We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →

The Bond Market Finally Woke Up

For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care.  The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular.  If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →

Tick Tock

Fed officials managed to talk stocks higher yesterday, but the underlying question remains: have they already lost control of inflation and interest rates? At 3.4%, Durable Orders more than tripled expectations. While GDP, initial claims and prices all came in at or better than forecast. Not surprisingly, interest rates shot higher – reaching key overhead … continue reading →

All Better

Futures are up nicely after yesterday’s VIX-inspired stick save  Recall that ES had completed a bearish H&S Pattern and VIX had completed a bearish Inverted H&S Pattern at the opening bell. Futures were off over 30 points and heading lower. If VIX’s IH&S had held, ES’s pattern targeted 3832 – a drop of 3.2% from … continue reading →

Inflation: A Growing Chorus

After feeling like the lone inflation alarmist for the past few months, I find myself in the midst of a growing chorus which now recognizes the Fed’s conundrum. Building inflationary pressures are now obvious to all. What isn’t clear is whether the Fed’s nonchalance re rising rates is real or feigned. And, if feigned, at … continue reading →

Update on Energy Markets: Feb 16, 2021

Texas, the energy capital of the US, is running short of energy. The cold snap is breaking records throughout the state, with temperatures so low that many wind and water turbines are frozen and not able to produce energy. Refineries are shut down. As of last night, over 3.5 million Texans are without power. Not … continue reading →

500 Miles High

Thinking of the late great Chick Corea this morning as I survey the sky-high equities market…  Futures have regained about half their overnight losses, spurred by a timely dip in VIX and pop in 10Y yields (testing Monday’s highs.) continued for members… … continue reading →