Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts

Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →

The Plunge the PPT is Really Protecting

The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging.  It think they’ve got it wrong.  What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →

Bulls: May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor

VIX has been crushed by 64% since Mnuchin convened the Plunge Protection Team.  Despite its rising channel and rising wedge breaking down, ES made higher highs yesterday.  In other words, the VIX games continue. But, with OPEX and quad-witching soon in the rear-view, buyback blackouts approaching, the BREXIT deadline just ahead, and bonds indicating equity … continue reading →