COVID-19: What to Expect

This article was originally posted March 13 and will be updated on a regular basis.  Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below.   UPDATE:  May 10, 2020 As some of you know, my daughter was in Rome for a semester abroad when the coronavirus breakout occurred in northern Italy. I … continue reading →

The Hits Keep Coming

It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative.  Gee, could 25% … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: May 28, 2020

I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]  The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

Q1 GDP was revised down to a negative 5% from 4.8% as Durable Goods came in at -19.4%, the worst since the financial crisis. Naturally, futures are up sharply……about equidistant between the important 200-DMA and the equally important 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93. It’s decision time for the men behind the curtain. Credibility has already … continue reading →