We’ve had a 4.75% target for the 10Y for almost 2 years – reasoning that the breakout in oil/gas prices would eventually force inflation and interest rates higher [see: The 10Y Breaks Out] and equity prices lower. Sure, the Fed was able to postpone it with the usual misleading jawboning. But, the bill has finally … continue reading →
Following a brief relief rally after the 6-week budget “fix” over the weekend, futures have resumed their decline. continued for members… … continue reading →
We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade. The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns … continue reading →
Futures added to their overnight gains following release of softer than expected August PCE (+0.4% versus 0.5%.) It remains to be seen whether the cash market can continue to whistle past the government shutdown graveyard. continued for members… … continue reading →
The currency pairs on which we focus reached our long-time targets on Tuesday. While good for the ego, it’s always a mixed bag for yours truly. It means a broad reassessment of the path forward at a time when the signposts are not terribly clear. First, a recap. EURUSD indeed reversed after reaching our 1.1273 … continue reading →
Futures have rebounded modestly following yesterday’s drubbing. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index’s plunge from 108.7 to 103 did little to convince investors that the consumer is still doing well. Perhaps the more important question: will it outweigh, in the minds of FOMC members, the stellar 0.9% increase in August for core capital goods? continued … continue reading →
Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →
Futures nailed our next downside target last week, and are slipping a little more this morning to test a key channel line. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately in advance of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. continued for members… … continue reading →