If you haven’t noticed something strange about the market’s price action lately, you probably haven’t been paying attention. Hint: it involves more than the market “shrugging off” bad news. This is the 9th session in a row where oil futures temporarily popped up above their 200-day moving average. Today is also the 10th out of … continue reading →
Today is off to an interesting start. Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →
I saw this posted by a portfolio manager for a big state pension plan yesterday. It struck me just how significantly the market has changed over the past 20 years. Twenty years ago, stock buybacks were mostly illegal. They were considered manipulative. Today, they are commonplace — fueled largely by historically low interest rates, favorable … continue reading →
Today we celebrate America’s veterans. Please take the opportunity to thank a veteran in your life for their service and their sacrifice. There are many organizations dedicated to helping veterans which rely on charitable donations for the good work they do. One of my favorites, the Michael J Novosel Foundation, was established to assist National … continue reading →
It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO. But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →
Another day, another after-hours ramp on trade deal rumours… This time, the news is out of China. Last night’s news, however, was more convoluted than usual. China says that it has agreed with the US to remove tariffs in phases. But, it also said that the deal would require that both countries simultaneously cancel tariffs … continue reading →
When the market hangs around an important level of resistance day after day, without breaking out or breaking down, it usually means something important. is in the works. We’ve seen it in the S&P futures, loitering around the 2.618 Fib extension (of the 2007-2009 crash) at 2076.93. We’ve seen it in VIX, bouncing repeatedly off … continue reading →
Yesterday delivered the initial stages of a potential downturn. The after-hours action, again, threw it into question after — you guessed it — more whispers of progress on the trade front.Naturally, we also saw more algo-baiting nonsense in VIX, USDJPY and crude.The record books will reflect that the market continues to hit new all-time highs. … continue reading →
Buy-and-hold investors are no doubt pleased with today’s new all-time highs. A review of the past two years, however, shows that traders who are tempted to chase stocks here should be very careful. This is the 4th breakout to new highs since January 2018. The figures below show limited upside in the days following each … continue reading →
This rally isn’t going down without a fight. The better than expected jobs report is this morning’s catalyst, sending S&P futures 13 points higher to break out of the little channel from which they broke down yesterday. Yes, it’s all very confusing – especially since the Fed just cut rates based on what is ostensibly … continue reading →