Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.] We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →
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A reminder, I will be traveling today and tomorrow. Please refer to Friday’s post for relevant targets for equities, currencies and commodities. … continue reading →
With various indices reaching or nearing important overhead resistance, today is shaping up as a moment of truth for a market which has delighted in head fakes.continued for members… … continue reading →
Despite a few tense moments midday, ES held the TL of support from last Wednesday and has rebounded to within 7.50 points of the important Fibonacci extension and channel top at 4153.62.Will the substantial overhead resistance at these levels matter this time? We’ll know very, very soon. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures were on the path to tag an important Fibonacci extension this morning when someone committed the cardinal sin of checking the headlines. The 6-point gain turned into a 2-point loss, causing VIX to swing into action. Can its sudden 7.63% plunge compel algos to prop up stocks yet again? continued for members… … continue reading →
This CPI data is significant in that it shot up over 2% – the highest since 2018 when the prints of 2.95% (July) and 2.70% (Aug) sent the 10Y up to 3.25%. But, it’s the inflation happening right now, which will be reported next month, that the Fed is worried about. As we’ve anticipated, March’s … continue reading →
It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target. From Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23: BTC even managed a proper backtest of the last major Fib level, opening the door to the next upside target at the purple 3.618 extension at 62,977. … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on a low volume Monday following what should have been a bigger reaction to the latest PPI data that was off the charts. Either bond traders all took Friday off, or it would appear that the Fed has taken “supporting” the markets to new heights. Markets will have another chance to … continue reading →
Back on Feb 25 Q4 GDP came in at 4.1%, so hot that S&P futures plunged over 100 points as investors quite rightly wondered how it might affect the Fed’s easy money policy.This morning’s March PPI at 4.2%, the highest since 2011? Yawn.Perhaps the reason the Fed is so unconcerned with the huge spike in … continue reading →
I received several nearly identical emails yesterday asking whether SPX’s tag of its channel top meant a downturn was imminent. The problem lies with the word “imminent.”We can certainly make a cogent argument that the market is in a bubble: a car company with a market cap of $1.25 million per car sold; more SPACs … continue reading →
There are many parallels between yesterday and Jan 26, 2018 – the calm before a vicious 10-day 11.8% storm. The obvious one is that SPX is back to the top of the large yellow channel dating back to the 2009 lows. Then, as now, this occurred shortly after SPX had bulled its way through a … continue reading →