Still on the road today…

Futures are down sharply following the conclusion of Trump’s visit to China where he reportedly whiffed on any major issues.

On the road today, so a quick update as ES approaches its 1.618 extension…

The PPI posted its biggest increase since March 22, rising 6.0% YoY and 1.2% MoM,  3x the 0.4% estimate. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.0% verus the 0.4% estimate.

Energy costs (+7.8%) which have soared due to Trump’s war on Iran drove the bulk of the increase. But the services index popped 1.2% due largely to a sharp 2.7% rise in trade services, a sign that tariff costs are impacting prices.

Vol has been handily suppressed, meaning the SPX futures are only slightly higher on the bad news.

…the hot inflation numbers are driving the 10Y to test recent highs where we expect the Fed/Treasury to take a stand.

We should soon see a rebound in the 2s10s.

CPI, though significantly understated, came in at 3.8% (0.6% MoM), sending interest rates higher and stocks lower.

We are meant to believe that commodities were flat month over month – hardly likely given the surge in prices for such inputs as diesel and fertilizer. Perhaps the worst part of the report, however, is the services inflation: 3.3% YoY and 0.5% MoM.

Even taken at face value, however, the trend is troubling. As we’ve said for the past several years, the bottoming of YoY gas prices meant the bottoming of inflation. Toss in a war that closes the Strait of Hormuz, and the result was inevitable.

Futures are off over 30 points…

…which is occurring after SPX tagged its 1.618 Fib extension yesterday.

Vol is being managed…

…but the 10Y gapped higher.

continuing…

Futures are fairly flat after a modest decline following Trump’s criticism of Iran’s response to his peace plan.

The politicians continue to fib. We’re not sure which politicians are fibbing more than the others, but they’re definitely fibbing. Even Trump admits the US was fired upon by the Iranians (presumably with missiles that weren’t obliterated) – a condition many would consider fire that hasn’t ceased. Oh well, the future are up nicely after a jobs report that confirms what we’ve said for ages: there is no justification for a rate cut.

According to the CNN article, the Fed is finally getting worried about the effect the Iran war could have on inflation. Better late than never. We got a hint in the last statement, with several dissenters questioning whether there should still be a rate cut bias. Consumers – at least those who eat, drive cars, or buy anything, could have told them it’s already a problem.

It hasn’t risen to the level of worrying the markets, however. Stocks are still on an AI sugar high and the opportunities for a clean backtest are thinning out.

VX is still being quite cagey about breaking down below its SMA200 and channel bottom, leaving open the possibility of a good-sized bounce.

VIX, on the other hand, is promoting a damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead approach to stock prices.

And, don’t look now, but the 10Y has gapped down again.

It could be the drop in oil. But, it could also be the dispersion in markets is starting to worry some equity investors just enough that they’re seeking shelter.

For weeks, Iran has insisted that the US end the war and settle the Strait of Hormuz first, with discussions of the nuclear program to follow. The US has always insisted that it be a package deal, and has tried numerous times to convince and/or threaten Iran to accept that approach. If Trump can be believed, it seems the US is backing down on its demands.

It’s a sensible approach for Trump to take, though it will come at a political cost: more TACO accusations. Apparently, someone in his orbit might have convinced him it’s necessary given the horrid poll numbers we’ve seen for his handling of the economy – the issue which got him elected. But, if you dig beneath the surface of the social media posts, it’s not at all clear that a deal has been reached.  From Al Jazeera…

Earlier on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that Operation Epic Fury, the air and naval campaign launched on February 28, was “concluded”.  What Washington now sought, he said, was a “memorandum of understanding for future negotiations”. For weeks, that is precisely what Iran has been demanding.

In proposals passed on to the US through Pakistan, Iran has in recent weeks sought multistage negotiations, with a preliminary deal aimed at ending the war, and negotiations on the White House’s demands that Tehran end its nuclear programme pushed for later.

Trump and his administration resisted, with the US president insisting that getting Iran to give up its nuclear programme was central to any deal with Tehran.

Now, the US appears to have come around to accepting Iran’s demand, say experts. On Wednesday, the Reuters news agency and the US publication Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to agreeing to a one-page MoU to end the war, even though there have been no detailed negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

For now, oil prices are down over 5% (versus over 10% a few hours ago), the 10Y is sharply lower, and futures are up over 0.50%.

The algos were elated at seeing VX back below its SMA200, though it has since rebounded. A breakdown would require that it remain below 19.21. At the present time, it leaves plenty of doubt.

VIX itself has already broken down several times and is going back to the well today.

Oil and gas futures are holding on to about half of their declines…

…so the 10Y is happy.

Could the war actually be over? It’s impossible to say. Trump has shown us over and over that he is able and willing to say or do almost anything to boost stock prices. Al Jazeera reports that Iran is considering Trump’s latest offer. Stay tuned.

The US and Iran are still shooting at each other (and others in the region) but so far Trump hasn’t ordered the carpet bombing to resume. And, I don’t think he will. I think the few intelligent people surrounding him who haven’t been fired yet and are willing to speak their minds have explained that he needs an off ramp — and that killing off “a whole civilization” is probably not the best way to go about it. Of course, timing is not on his side.

He needs said off ramp well before the November mid-terms or he’s looking at impeachment #3. The Iranians no doubt realize this, and would do well to drag out the war (nothing mini about it from their standpoint) until November. If Trump were to be neutered, they would have much less to fear from the US.

There are wild cards, of course. China’s last shipments of oil from the Middle East are steaming into port right about now, and they’re going to start hurting. Will they decide to get more “proactive” in reasserting their rights to import oil? Will the US enforce the blockade, thereby preventing China from importing that oil? Could being proactive result in their own blockade of, say, Taiwan and our insatiable appetite for semiconductors? So many questions…

In the meantime, futures are up modestly because it got dark last night, and that’s what they do whenever that happens.

While CL hasn’t made higher highs in a while…

…RB certainly has. And I think gas prices are definitely more important right now.

The bond market seems to agree…

…even though the 2s10s remains unnaturally subdued.

ES is off modestly as the technical picture remains stuck in essentially the same position as the past few sessions: two important Fib extensions, a channel midline, and some overdue gap fills.