Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%. Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for … continue reading →

Some Like It Hot

If you’re a retailer, you might be thrilled with the personal income and personal spending beat last month (0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.8% versus 0.4% expected.) If you’re a manufacturer, you might be pleased with durable goods coming in at a +1.1% versus the -1.3% expected. But, if you’re a member of the FOMC, … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way. Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was … continue reading →

Fed Minutes: May 24, 2023

Futures are off about 0.5% in advance of the latest FOMC minutes. While these releases don’t often shed much light on what to expect, they can help us understand what the Fed fears the most. Based on recent comments, the fear of sticky inflation seems to be outweighing the fear of a recession.With the debt … continue reading →

Stocks vs Bonds

The OPEX meltup continued overnight, with futures up modestly to new 9-month highs. Powell speaks at 11am ET and might shed some light on the implications of treasury yields which have pushed to new cycle highs – reflecting a much more cautious assessment of the debt ceiling negotiations. continued for members… … continue reading →