Housing starts rose a measly 1.6% to 1.36M, but it was single family permits that really disappointed in April, coming in at 1.41M versus 1.45M expected and 1.48 prior. The slump is a reflection of falling builder sentiment due to higher Trump tariffs, a shrinking labor supply amide his crackdown on immigration, and persistently high … continue reading →
Following a strong March where consumers ramped up purchases in advance of tariff-induced price hikes, retail sales plunged in April to 0.1%, well below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with UNH’s 10%+ downdraft following news of a criminal probe, futures are off moderately this morning. Even Walmart is warning of a weakening consumer and risks posed … continue reading →
When asked why he robbed banks, bank robber Willie Sutton is reported to have replied “Because that’s where the money is.” This week, we’ve seen a spectacular bout of deal making and gift giving in Saudi Arabia that would make Mr. Sutton blush. Futures are up modestly as ES tags its .786 Fibonacci retracement. continued … continue reading →
CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, a little lighter than expected – but, only because most tariff price hikes hadn’t worked their way into the official print just yet. There’s very little chance, for instance, that new vehicle price increases will remain tame unless tariffs are eliminated altogether. The biggest benefactor to … continue reading →
Trump blinked again, this time with China. The postponement of huge tariffs has sent futures soaring – right up to the 200-day moving average. Tariffs on Chinese imports will still be 30%, more than enough to eliminate the profit margin for many US retailers. continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday was a bust. About 30 minutes before I needed to leave for the airport, I had one of those kidney stone attacks that had me doubled over in pain. All I can say is thank goodness for pain killers. While I made my plane, I wasn’t able to post at all. This morning, with … continue reading →
Due to some last minute travel plans, today’s analysis will be posted after 3pm ET. Thanks for your understanding. … continue reading →
No one really expects the FOMC to change interest rates, but a great deal of attention will be paid to Powell’s comments, if any, on the impact tariffs will have on the economy and the Fed’s policy. The overnight ramp job is ebbing, with futures currently about 10 points higher. Our charts turned bearish almost … continue reading →
Futures are off almost 1% in advance of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement and press conference. While traders are nearly unanimous that there won’t be a rate cut tomorrow, there is less certainty as to how explicit Powell’s comments on the impact of tariffs will be. Many corporations are forecasting significant declines in earnings or pulling their … continue reading →
While the SPX was oversold at its April lows, there was a reason for the selloff. That reason, Trump’s disastrous trade war, is still with us. Yet, the market is back to where it was when the tariffs were announced after nine straight daily gains, the longest winning streak in more than 20 years. Friday’s … continue reading →