If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll.  On CNBC this morning:

“We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.”

Futures were not amused, dropping from slightly higher to slightly lower as he spoke even though today is OPEX [see: Does OPEX Matter? (which desperately needs updating)].

continued for members… At some point, SPX should backtest its .886 – but probably not until after OPEX. EURUSD did, indeed, respect the white channel top and is backing off as expected – a net negative for stocks.

While USDJPY is treading water, hanging below its SMA200 – probably until the red TL arrives at current levels so a backtest isn’t overly bearish. Meanwhile, DXY is still backtesting the white TL. A drop below = bullish for stocks while a bounce = bearish.Despite CL and especially RB bouncing…

…the floodgates have been opened. The 10Y continues to be under pressure as the trend line breakdown is a clear regime change.

The bulls/Fed will try to keep it below the SMA200 and, ideally, the red channel midline. While, the bears would love nothing more than to see a bounce off the midline and above the SMA200.

Currently, I see the 10Y as backtesting this broken TL and failing to retake its SMA200. But, the situation is quite fluid given the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

So far, the 2s10s is threatening to retake the red TL, which would point to very serious troubles ahead as opposed to the garden variety correction suggested by the breakdown.I haven’t offered annual memberships for a while. And, aside from our discounted first month/quarter for new members, we don’t really offer membership discounts.

But, there has been a big uptick in the number of accounts being periodically locked by the membership software connected to our system – often a consequence of sharing login credentials with a friend or colleague (the system automatically tracks when folks from two different places are logging on at the same time.)

If you know someone who might enjoy our website, just drop me a line. If you have an annual membership, we’ll offer them the same deal as you are getting (many of you have terrific discounts for your annual memberships.) Alternatively, we’ll offer them a monthly membership at a fixed $99/month or quarterly at a fixed $299.

Thanks!