What’s Next?

The futures are lock limit down again this morning, with ETFs trading in the after-hours indicating losses on the (eventual) open of up to 10%. This is probably not what the Fed had in mind when they unleashed the massive, emergency rate cut and $700 billion in new QE an hour before the futures opened … continue reading →

The Storm Finally Arrives

After weeks of gathering clouds, the storm we’ve been watching has finally arrived. S&P futures are lock limit down just a few points above our next downside target. Not surprisingly, all of our other targets across currencies, commodities and fixed income have either tagged or exceeded our next downside targets, with more to go once … continue reading →

Decision Time, Again

We start this morning’s post with a peek at the Russell 2000 as it perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing the broader markets this morning. Up until September 2017, RUT followed a well-defined rising channel shown below in yellow.  Like all channels, it was defined by the tops and bottoms along the way. The only problem: … continue reading →

Wuhan Coronavirus: Still Here

In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →

Just When You Thought it was Safe…

The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

I’ve seen one particular assessment over and over in the financial news this morning: The market’s rebound following Iran’s missile strikes last night was “surprising.” No, it is most certainly not surprising! Not even a little bit. Anyone who pays the least bit of attention to charts could have seen this coming a mile away. … continue reading →

The Snoozefest Continues

All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it.  Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Games

Inflation drives interest rates. Though the Fed probably wishes it didn’t, it’s an inconvenient truth.  There are much tighter correlations, but consider the strong positive correlation between CPI and 10Y notes. This matters, of course, because with $22 trillion in debt, the US faces the same problem as the ECB and Japan: High interest rates … continue reading →