Two quotes by Janet Yellen, only hours apart. The first clearly emphasizes the very real risk of rapidly rising inflation… “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.” …while … continue reading →
At some point – perhaps after six months of hot inflation data – the Fed will be forced to admit that inflation pressure are not transitory. This morning we saw evidence that March personal incomes spiked by 21.1%, the most since 1946. Personal spending for the month shot up 4.2%, the most since last June. … continue reading →
The Case-Shiller Home Price index rose 12% YoY – the fastest pace since February 2006 – meaning even fewer Americans have a shot at purchasing or renting a house. Ironically, the burden falls mostly on the low-income families that the Fed claims to be most concerned about. Thank goodness we don’t have an inflation problem. … continue reading →
March durable goods orders disappointed this morning, coming in at 0.5% versus the 2.3% rebound expected after February’s -1.2% flop. We couldn’t help wonder whether the data were somehow related to the first (tiny) breakdown in RBOB prices since the Mar 23 lows. Given that oil and gas are poised to deliver a huge increase … continue reading →
Futures are backtesting the 10-day SMA this morning in the wake of the first two day decline since March. Look for more to come. continued for members… … continue reading →
With various indices reaching or nearing important overhead resistance, today is shaping up as a moment of truth for a market which has delighted in head fakes.continued for members… … continue reading →
Despite a few tense moments midday, ES held the TL of support from last Wednesday and has rebounded to within 7.50 points of the important Fibonacci extension and channel top at 4153.62.Will the substantial overhead resistance at these levels matter this time? We’ll know very, very soon. continued for members… … continue reading →
This CPI data is significant in that it shot up over 2% – the highest since 2018 when the prints of 2.95% (July) and 2.70% (Aug) sent the 10Y up to 3.25%. But, it’s the inflation happening right now, which will be reported next month, that the Fed is worried about. As we’ve anticipated, March’s … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on a low volume Monday following what should have been a bigger reaction to the latest PPI data that was off the charts. Either bond traders all took Friday off, or it would appear that the Fed has taken “supporting” the markets to new heights. Markets will have another chance to … continue reading →
I received several nearly identical emails yesterday asking whether SPX’s tag of its channel top meant a downturn was imminent. The problem lies with the word “imminent.”We can certainly make a cogent argument that the market is in a bubble: a car company with a market cap of $1.25 million per car sold; more SPACs … continue reading →