Judging the Fed

In an excellent interview on CNBC this morning, Paul Tudor Jones echoed what many on Wall Street have been thinking and we have been writing for the past year or so. Inflation could be “much worse” than feared, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says. “It’s probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial … continue reading →

Buying the Dip?

Futures are up moderately this morning, bouncing 60 points from their midnight lows on a retreat in VIX. Note that it wasn’t a collapse – the usual response when a rally is resuming. This lack of algo baiting occurred yesterday, too, when ES completed a Head & Shoulders Pattern and backtested it in a fashion … continue reading →

Gold: Anatomy of a Rat’s Nest Chart

Once in a while, charts are so crystal clear that we can see the future as easily as we can reflect on the past. Gold is not one of those charts. The zigs and zags come fast and furious and rarely correlate with anything happening in the real world. Witness the indifference this so-called inflation … continue reading →

Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

Futures nailed our 4424 target overnight. Most will attribute it to Powell’s (completely unsurprising) resolve to support the economy the stock market. But, we know that the algos were spurred into action by VIX’s drop back into the falling channel from Mar 2020 and its dip below its 200-DMA. Remember, it ain’t over till it’s … continue reading →

Equities Plunge on Loss of Algo Support

Futures reached our next downside target earlier this morning, the Fibonacci retracement at 4348 we added on Sep 9 [see: Just Don’t Call it a Taper.] ES is now off 4.6% since recent highs and 4% since our Correction Watch on Sep 8. The algo factors, which have propped up stocks for months, are positioned … continue reading →

Because They Can Can Can

Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print…  More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices.  In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →

OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →