VIX’s Important Test

Futures are up sharply on a better than expected jobs report: up 4.8 million, and the unemployment rate dropping to 11.1%. Initial claims came in at 1.43 million, with continuing claims rising slightly to 19.3 million. The direction didn’t surprise anyone, but the numbers surprised most. The reopening of most of the country over the … continue reading →

Another Day, Another Test

As we slowly make our way toward the end of Q2, we continue to see tests of important support. They are usually followed by sharp bounces despite the growing evidence that a selloff is right around the corner.Will today be the day the market finally takes the plunge? continued for members… … continue reading →

Oh Yeah, the China Trade Deal…

When does “it’s over” mean it’s not over?  When the market plunges 65 points, of course. The 2% hiccup came when Fox’s Martha MacCallum asked Trump advisor Peter Navarro whether John Bolton’s claims that Trump delayed imposing sanctions on China over its policy of interning Uighur Muslims would jeopardize the China trade deal. Navarro, fresh … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 22, 2020

Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday.  Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices. Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental … continue reading →

Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

We’re All Canaries

It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way.  Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →

Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

The New Normal?

With May contracts in the rear view, we wondered whether oil markets would revert to some sense of normalcy.  A steep contango continues, however, with June contracts assuming the role of the panic stricken expiration month. Futures tested our initial downside target yesterday, the Fib 2.24 extension at 2728.79, and bounced overnight… …as oil and … continue reading →

Crude Carnage

May WTI futures are off almost 35% since Friday’s close.  This drops it below the 17.12 target we first identified in March 2019 when, at 59.32, CL had completed a rising wedge and tagged multiple channel lines. Members might recall the 17.12 target was originally set for April 2023 in keeping with a March 2019 … continue reading →