Striking Distance

This is day 8 of our membership promotion, running now through the end of the month for members and non-members alike. We’re offering a 25% rebate off the first month of Monthly and Quarterly auto-renew subscriptions. Annual memberships are available at a very substantial discount (rewarding those who act quickly!) Remember, the annual pricing is … continue reading →

Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →

Whistling Past the Graveyard

Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks.  That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →

What Recovery?

It was thoughtful of eurostat to include the US in their chart.  Funny, that’s not the chart one would picture based on the MSM’s steady drumbeat of “recovery!” Germany, which had previously taken an ambivalent attitude about the soaring euro, might change its tune following its worst GDP print since Q408.  The main culprit?  Exports, … continue reading →

What Gives? Feb 13, 2013

It was worth watching the SOTU last night just to see Boehner’s contortions, trying to scowl in a dignified, statesman-like way.  Nothing much new in the speech or the response. More interesting was Mitch McConnell’s comment on CNBC last night that the sequester will go into effect. I don’t know any reputable economist who believes … continue reading →