Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →
Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning……with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately on USD weakness. The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above. This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or … continue reading →
Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited. … continue reading →
With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately. continued for members… … continue reading →
He could have gone full hawk, but he didn’t. Even in the face of economic data (that the rest of us can now see) which was uniformly positive and a coming bump in inflation, Powell chose the route that best supported stocks. ES bounced at its SMA10 and is surging toward its .886 Fib retracement. … continue reading →
The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y. It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level. continued for members… … continue reading →
We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →