Update on Bitcoin: Nov 17, 2020

Almost 8 months ago I posted our first outlook on BTC [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]   We noted at the time that the FOMC was “officially in the short-squeeze business” after ES came within 19 points (trading was halted there) of our 2155 target and the Dow was set to test the Nov 8, 2016 (election … continue reading →

CPI: MIA

Futures remained slightly lower following lower than expected initial claims (709K vs 740K consensus) and CPI – which came in at 1.2% annual and 0.0% for October.  Note that it took a plug number outlier +1.2% pop in electricity to keep CPI from going negative. One would think if the economy were really all that … continue reading →

GDP Beats, But…

After the government “put $5 trillion into a $3 trillion hole,” as Ares Management’s Michael Arougheti so eloquently put it, GDP bounced back sharply last quarter. Unfortunately, it’s still down 2.9% for the year.Keep in mind that this is also the advance read for the third quarter, days before an important presidential election, and that … continue reading →

Rally Faces Another Test

Futures have given up all of Friday’s rebound gains and then some, again testing the IH&S neckline and the bottom of the rising white channel from last March. At the risk of sounding dramatic, a failure of the channel would mark the end of the current rally and usher in the correction suggested by our … continue reading →

Housing Boom: 2007 Redux

Single-family home starts continued to gain from rock bottom interest rates and the exodus from urban, multifamily housing amid the pandemic. September residential starts grew 1.9%, while permits rose 5.2%, the fastest since the 2007 peak. Single-family inventory dipped to 3.3 months, the smallest since 1963, while multifamily starts cratered by 16.3%. It was a … continue reading →

Trade Troubles

The trade deal: the gift that keeps on giving. The August trade deficit came in at $67.1 billion, the largest since 2006 – partly a reflection of the pandemic but exacerbated by a 9.3% collapse in the value of the DXY since its March highs. At the same time, oil and gas prices have spiked … continue reading →

The Road Ahead

Futures ramped higher overnight, continuing to dance to the tune of VIX’s smackdown and ongoing rumors of a fiscal stimulus deal… …and ignoring troubling pandemic facts. But, we’re finally into October and Q4. And, as we discussed yesterday, things are about to get very interesting. continued for members… … continue reading →

The Dollar’s Demise

If our charts are to be believed, we are on the cusp of a significant move in currency pairs and the bond yields. 10Y yields plunged back in March, then began rebounding via a long, drawn-out flag pattern that broke down in late June. Since then, it has been tracing out an equally long, drawn-out … continue reading →