Futures are off sharply on a very stagflationary offering of economic data. Q1 GDP rose at only 1.6% versus expectations of 2.4%, while core PCE prices rose 3.7% against expectations of 3.4%. The PCE index itself is due out tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that unemployment claims for the week ended April 20 came … continue reading →
Futures have regained about 30 points after last week’s drubbing. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures tanked overnight on news of Israel’s rocket attack on Iran, only to recover all their losses as we go to press. The latest retaliation is being characterized as a tit for tat. But it’s easy to imagine the Plunge Protection Team working overtime to calm markets by hammering VIX and WTI back down from … continue reading →
Gold and silver both came within 1% of our upside targets for them earlier this week. With inflationary pressures once again top of mind, have they exhausted their upside potential? We’ll update our long-term forecasts this morning. continued for members… … continue reading →
Retail sales came in roughly double the Street’s estimates at 0.7% versus consensus of 0.3-0.4%. Ex-auto was just as strong: 1.1% versus 0.5% consensus. Combined with an Empire State Manufacturing index disappointment of -14.3 versus -6.0 expected, futures sold off for all of 30 seconds or so before rebounding to higher highs. The retail sales … continue reading →
As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, … continue reading →
In contrast to yesterday’s CPI print, PPI came in below estimates at 0.2% headline and core. Futures erased their sharp overnight losses which saw them nail our next downside target and now point to modest gains. A bounce here would be more convincing if SPX were to also reach its 50-day moving average. continued for … continue reading →
March CPI came in at 0.4% MoM for both headline and core (versus 0.3% expectations for both), hotter than expected for the second month in a row. YoY headline registered at 3.5% versus expectations of 3.4% and 3.2% in February and core came in at 3.8% (unchanged from February) versus expectations of 3.7%. As we … continue reading →
Futures are moderately higher on the eve of the CPI print that will likely determine the rate cut picture for the next few months. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →