Currencies: A Turning Point

Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →

Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

Crude Carnage

May WTI futures are off almost 35% since Friday’s close.  This drops it below the 17.12 target we first identified in March 2019 when, at 59.32, CL had completed a rising wedge and tagged multiple channel lines. Members might recall the 17.12 target was originally set for April 2023 in keeping with a March 2019 … continue reading →

Decision Time, Again

We start this morning’s post with a peek at the Russell 2000 as it perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing the broader markets this morning. Up until September 2017, RUT followed a well-defined rising channel shown below in yellow.  Like all channels, it was defined by the tops and bottoms along the way. The only problem: … continue reading →

Just When You Thought it was Safe…

The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →

Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →