The Year in Review: 2023

These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility.  More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022

It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally. But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher. It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil … continue reading →

Fixing Gas Prices

Gasoline futures (RBOB) have reached our 200-day moving average target set on March 3 [see: The Devil You Know] after having broken out of a falling flag pattern.  Then… …nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market…If oil does retreat, stocks should too. … continue reading →

OPEX Strikes Again

Futures are up sharply… …as VIX is being crushed in order to provide cover for about $2 trillion in options expiring today. We’ve been seeing this all week, with multiple downturns reversed by late-session assaults on VIX even as earnings and economic data have argued for lower stock prices. Chase this rally at your own … continue reading →

Oil and Inflation

WTI has reached our 200-day moving average target posted last month.This is a very significant move which, unfortunately, didn’t happen soon enough to affect June CPI or PPI. Long-time readers know that I’ve been harping on inflation for a long time. The reason is simple: math. Annual “headline” CPI, which is the one we all … continue reading →

New Highs for CPI

CPI reached a new cycle high in June: 9.1% versus expectations of 8.8%. This is the highest print since November 1981. Core came in at 5.9%. Monthly prints were 1.3% headline and 0.7% core. The recent decline in oil and gas prices – although substantial – came too late to help mitigate June inflation. The … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 13, 2022

ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →

Analog in Play

Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point. The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play. continued for members… … continue reading →