pebblewriter

Tag: OPEX

  • Premature Escalation

    As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, then we could see more meaningful support for equities. If VIX surges past that long term trend line, then the bears could finally have something to celebrate.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 19, 2024

    Keep an eye on home sales, due out at 10am ET. Shelter has been one of the more problematic categories of inflation for the Fed, showing a 6.2% annual increase in December. Without a doubt, it remains the biggest impediment to getting inflation back down to 2%.

    Like yesterday, the overnight ramp has faded as we approach the open.  The housing data could determine whether we see a more robust backtest or new highs.

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  • John Williams: “Not so Fast”

    If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll.  On CNBC this morning:

    “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.”

    Futures were not amused, dropping from slightly higher to slightly lower as he spoke even though today is OPEX [see: Does OPEX Matter? (which desperately needs updating)].

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 15, 2023

    The OPEX overnight ramp faltered with news of the UAW strike. Futures are currently off slightly despite VIX falling to levels not seen since Jan 2020.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2023

    Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.

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  • OPEX Eve

    Futures are sagging after powering through another key Fibonacci level. At this point, the only question is whether or not we see a backtest.

    With OPEX coming up tomorrow, it’s unclear whether we could get a full backtest of the .786 at 4534.63.

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  • Earnings Suddenly Matter

    Futures are off about 30 points on disappointing earnings from stocks such as TSLA, AXP, KEY, etc. and a continuing slump in oil and gas.

    VIX is even popping as we approach the open. If it holds, the rollover in equities will have officially begun.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

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  • VIX Sliding Away

    Seemingly on a rail, VIX’s bump took it only to the top of the falling red channel in place for over a month.

    A failure to break out means ES can top its 361.8 Fib extension and reach its IH&S targets. continued for members… (more…)

  • Algos: Ready for FOMC

    In yet another reminder of their sway over the markets, the algos have brought stocks to the brink of a breakout by putting VIX at the brink of another breakdown.

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