On the Brink

As we stated in yesterday’s update… …the downside case would be damaged considerably if NVDA were to come out with stellar earnings and outlook that boosted ES back into the rising yellow channel. NVDA’s stellar earnings and outlook did, in fact, boost NVDA back into its previously broken channel. The resulting algo spasm, however, boosted … continue reading →

All Good Things…

All good things must come to an end, or so the saying goes. For NVDA, it’s clear that the stock’s rally since the end of 2023 was following a very steep and narrow acceleration channel. These sorts of patterns feed upon themselves. As long as no one upsets the apple cart, there are outsized profits … continue reading →

Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%. It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than … continue reading →

A Technical Recovery

Thanks to VIX being hammered by 20% from yesterday’s highs, futures have recovered almost .50% – just enough to reach the bottom of the channel from which they broke down. SPX experienced a similar recovery late in the day, preserving (for now) the integrity of the channel that has produced a stunning 23% return since … continue reading →

Oh So Close…

The S&P 500 came within 11 cents of 5,000 yesterday, marking a remarkable 43% run since the October 2022 lows and 22% return since the October 2023 lows. The month of February has a mixed track record over the past 10 years, with gains and losses evenly split. Stocks frequently pause at big, round numbers … continue reading →

NFP Soars

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  … continue reading →

INTC: Coulda Seen it Coming

If you knew absolutely nothing about the company Intel, but knew just the basics of chart patterns and Fibonacci patterns, today’s sharp pullback would have come as no surprise. In fact, you could say the same thing about the past 25 years. Note that 69.29 was only 75 cents away from an 88.6% retracement (a … continue reading →

Update on Gold and Silver: Jan 24, 2024

In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22. It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced … continue reading →

A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →