That Sinking Feeling

As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →

Q1 GDP Slumps Further

Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →

But It Looks Like a Rally…

Following a series of intraday ramps, futures shot up above the 10-day moving average as soon as the market closed. Bogus? Of course. But, the record will reflect (and the algos have responded to) a seemingly bullish move. Chase it at your own peril. Today’s tricks will include trying to get past the 10am New … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Jun 21, 2022

My apologies for today’s post being so late. Our webhosting company just now fixed the “network connectivity problem in one of [their] clusters.”  I’d be very upset about it except for the fact that this is the very first time in over two years that they’ve ever let me down. This post will be a … continue reading →

It’s Currencies’ Turn

USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →

Analog in Play

Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point. The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

ES spent 11 hours hanging around our next downside target yesterday.  While the session had many characteristics of capitulation, the fact that SPX didn’t quite reach significant support (3956) suggests that the overnight ramp is a head fake.continued for members… … continue reading →

Nobody Saw it Coming

The financial press usually starts to take things seriously about this point in a correction. The permabulls aren’t calling bottoms any more, while the bears are licking their chops. It never fails, someone on TV says something like “no one saw this coming.” It’s silly, of course. What they mean is that they didn’t see … continue reading →

A Failure to Communicate

Remember that scene in Cool Hand Luke where Paul Newman mouths off to the Captain after a failed escape attempt? He doesn’t initially appreciate the gravity of his situation. He is soon reminded. That’s what yesterday’s post-Fed presser felt like. Powell was trying to convey the sense that the Fed means business. It is going … continue reading →

FOMC Day: May 4, 2022

Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the most anticipated and consequential in years. It’s difficult to overstate its importance in terms of economic impact and, perhaps more importantly, Fed credibility. Yes, we care about whether the Fed hikes 50 or 75 basis points – though either is unlikely to put a dent in inflation. The … continue reading →