Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: May 28, 2020

I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]  The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →

Time for Bulls to Get Nervous?

SPX needed about 22 points downside to reach the support of its SMA50, a rising channel bottom, and a falling channel bottom.  ES, which finally reached our 2655 target from last week [see FOMC: Endgame] is currently off 30 points. At this rate, SPX will breach its support on the open, especially if USDJPY doesn’t … continue reading →

Backtest Accomplished

Members, remember to request access to @pebbletrades if you’d like intraday notices of important updates.  Only about 20% of you are currently signed up, and I’d like to use it more often to signal when important target tags or changes to a forecast occur. If your identity isn’t discernible from your Twitter handle, drop us … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Dec 26, 2018

Back on August 15, we noted that gold was nearing an important downside target.  From Charts I’m Watching: Aug 15, 2018: [Gold] has reached triple support –the .618, yellow TL off the 2011 highs, and the red TL from 2010.  We’ve targeted 1173.60 since the yellow TL broke down in May and gray channel broke … continue reading →

Coincidences and Consequences

It’s interesting how Khashoggi’s murder top-ticked oil and gas prices… …and, so soon after Trump’s latest demand that OPEC lower oil prices. I’m certainly not insinuating that Trump had anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder. But, OPEC ignored Trump’s Sep 20 demand.  Two weeks later, oil prices had spiked 10% higher.  Since Oct 3, the … continue reading →

A Backtest or More?

Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.) The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900. Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst … continue reading →

CPI: The Games Continue

Everyone who drives knows that gas prices increased more than 3% month-over-month  – the official, seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS in this morning’s CPI report.  Data put together by non-governmental sources confirms it.But, folks like GasBuddy and AAA aren’t responsible for cost of living adjustments for millions of Americans.  So, unlike the BLS, they … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Apr 11, 2018

In our last major update [see: Jan 26 Update] we noted that gold, 1355 at the time, had reached the same price level at which it had frequently reversed.  Even though we’d had a bullseye at 1377-1380 for over a year, it had stopped short several times. GC is sitting just below the neckline of … continue reading →