Tit for Tat

Futures tanked overnight on news of Israel’s rocket attack on Iran, only to recover all their losses as we go to press. The latest retaliation is being characterized as a tit for tat. But it’s easy to imagine the Plunge Protection Team working overtime to calm markets by hammering VIX and WTI back down from … continue reading →

Premature Escalation

As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 8, 2024

Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →

Another Blowout Jobs Report

NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts. ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Mar 25, 2024

Many bears have simply given up betting on a downside that, despite plentiful recession indicators, feels increasingly unlikely. Since the S&P 500 completed its Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern back in December, the index has piled on nearly 14% [see: A Look Ahead at 2024.] The many, many bulls point to a generally strong economy, … continue reading →

Breakdown/Breakout

In a repeat of the most effective algo move of the past 10+ years, VIX broke down following the Fed’s no-news rate decision and press conference yesterday. As always, this allowed equities to leapfrog an area of stubborn overhead resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →

Hey Fed: You Break It, You Fix It

In his January press conference, Fed Chief Jay Powell accepted some responsibility for the sharp rise in housing prices during the pandemic. “We’re also well aware that when we cut rates at the beginning of the pandemic, for example, the … housing industry was helped more than any other industry.” This statement implies that, were … continue reading →