Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%. It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than … continue reading →

Hot CPI Dashes Rate Cut Hopes

January CPI came in hotter than expected, taking a March rate cut off the table and casting serious doubts on a May rate cut. Futures are off sharply, shedding over 1% to reach the bottom of the rising green channel from Oct 2023. continued for members… … continue reading →

CPI Ticks Higher

CPI came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.1% versus 0.0% expected and prior (annual 3.1% vs 3.1%.) Core was 4.0% (unchanged) but 0.3% monthly versus 0.2% prior and 0.0% expected.) Core goods actually fell 0.3% while much stickier services rose a blistering 0.5%. This is all a bit of a disappointment for the rate … continue reading →

Update on Oil and Gas: Dec 7, 2023

Algos popped in the past hour on a larger than expected increase in initial jobless claims with the more important NFP due out tomorrow. But, the more dramatic move has been in oil, with CL reaching our next downside target and RB well on its way to its own. continued for members… … continue reading →

PCE Just High Enough

Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →

October CPI Unchanged

October CPI came in unchanged following a 0.4% increase in September. For the year, CPI dropped to 3.2% from 3.7% in September. Core came in at 4.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Futures soared on the print. As we have anticipated for the past several months, it was a sharp drop in gas prices which produced … continue reading →

All Eyes on CPI

This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday.  Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets. Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% … continue reading →

CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →