August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →
Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades. At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed. This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print. continued for members… … continue reading →
The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →
After a brief respite, bank stocks are again under pressure with deposit flight and CDS both pointing to escalating concerns. Neither the April CPI nor PPI prints support the notion that the Fed will lower rates any time soon – keeping the pressure on banks and an economy that depends on easy access to cheap … continue reading →
After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →
They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one. Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat. After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the … continue reading →
Seemingly on a rail, VIX’s bump took it only to the top of the falling red channel in place for over a month. A failure to break out means ES can top its 361.8 Fib extension and reach its IH&S targets. continued for members… … continue reading →
It was more of a red ripple than a red wave. So far, it appears that Republicans will hold a five seat majority in the House and might actually lose ground in the Senate. Futures are moderately lower.continued for members… … continue reading →