FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one. Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat. After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the … continue reading →

VIX Sliding Away

Seemingly on a rail, VIX’s bump took it only to the top of the falling red channel in place for over a month. A failure to break out means ES can top its 361.8 Fib extension and reach its IH&S targets. continued for members… … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Nov 2, 2022

The market is essentially unchanged from yesterday, with VIX in a position to make or break this rally unless the FOMC delivers a significant surprise. We’ve seen this movie before: a sharp rally into a Fed meeting or CPI report that wipes out the put buyers and positions the market for a drop from a … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Inflation Rises

August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →