Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

Crude Carnage

May WTI futures are off almost 35% since Friday’s close.  This drops it below the 17.12 target we first identified in March 2019 when, at 59.32, CL had completed a rising wedge and tagged multiple channel lines. Members might recall the 17.12 target was originally set for April 2023 in keeping with a March 2019 … continue reading →

Update on Oil: Apr 6, 2020

Many seasoned investors are surprised to see how positively correlated stock returns have been to oil prices. Energy stocks make up 8% of the overall market, so you’d expect them to have some influence. But, thanks to the increasing prominence of algorithms and quantitative trading, the impact has grown well beyond what 8% should contribute … continue reading →

The True Price of Oil

As enjoyable as it is filling up the Family Truckster for only $2.36/gallon, what if it meant the the death of thousands of Kurds?  Here’s what we know. For months, OPEC ignored Trump’s demands to bring down the price of oil.  Trump was correctly concerned that spiking oil prices would push inflation to new highs … continue reading →

CPI: The Games Continue

Everyone who drives knows that gas prices increased more than 3% month-over-month  – the official, seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS in this morning’s CPI report.  Data put together by non-governmental sources confirms it.But, folks like GasBuddy and AAA aren’t responsible for cost of living adjustments for millions of Americans.  So, unlike the BLS, they … continue reading →