Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18. The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Oil and gas futures have both tagged our next downside targets from June [see: Update on Oil & Gas, June 6, 2024.]. We’ll take a look at the road ahead and what it means for the equity and bond markets. continued for members… … continue reading →
In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started. He … continue reading →
In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go. GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50. GC reached … continue reading →
A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year. RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 … continue reading →
Futures are moderately higher on the eve of the CPI print that will likely determine the rate cut picture for the next few months. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →
In his January press conference, Fed Chief Jay Powell accepted some responsibility for the sharp rise in housing prices during the pandemic. “We’re also well aware that when we cut rates at the beginning of the pandemic, for example, the … housing industry was helped more than any other industry.” This statement implies that, were … continue reading →
February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January. Shelter and gas price … continue reading →
Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain. This should put SPX at its … continue reading →