Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Inflation Rises

August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →

CPI Edges Lower

Futures ripped higher on the news that July CPI came in 0.2% lower than expected on both the monthly and annual headline figures: 0.0% and 8.5%.  Core rose 0.3% and 5.9% – still well above the Fed’s so-called 2% target. Much has been made of the price drop seen in oil and gas since mid-June. … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jul 27, 2022

Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision. Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup. continued for members… … continue reading →

Fast and Furious

Between an FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, GDP, durable goods, PCE, consumer sentiment, new home sales and a slew of important earnings calls, this week promises to be one of the most important so far in 2022. Somewhere in all that data we should learn whether the economy is really in a recession (spoiler alert: it … continue reading →

New Highs for CPI

CPI reached a new cycle high in June: 9.1% versus expectations of 8.8%. This is the highest print since November 1981. Core came in at 5.9%. Monthly prints were 1.3% headline and 0.7% core. The recent decline in oil and gas prices – although substantial – came too late to help mitigate June inflation. The … continue reading →

Inflation Reaches a New 40-Year High

CPI soared to a new 40-year high: 8.6% YoY and 1.0% MoM. Core also exceeded consensus, coming in at 6.0%. Futures are not amused, as this takes anything less than a 50 bps rate hike next week off the table. A 75 bps hike is suddenly a real possibility. Needless to say, our analog remains … continue reading →

Bullard Speaks

In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed President Jim Bullard said “Our credibility is on the line here…”  Anyone paying any attention to the Fed knows that that ship sailed a long time ago. Futures have been all over the map, down as many as 55 points before VIX was hammered following a false news … continue reading →