If gasoline prices remain where they are or continue to rise, Powell will be just plain wrong about inflation being transitory. This is what to expect if gas prices were to flatline at this level through December. Unless most of the other components of inflation were to nosedive, CPI will remain well above 2% for … continue reading →
It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target. From Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23: BTC even managed a proper backtest of the last major Fib level, opening the door to the next upside target at the purple 3.618 extension at 62,977. … continue reading →
Jerome Powell gave a good news/bad news speech to the Economic Club of New York. He noted that employment is still 10 million below February 2020 levels and that a broader range of unemployment would put the current rate at 10%, adding, “We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are … continue reading →
It’s a little known fact that if you’re trying to get over the pain of back-to-back knee replacements, you should have rotator cuff surgery. At least that’s what my horoscope said. As a result, my typing skills will be a little off this morning, which means my market insight might also be a bit off. … continue reading →
Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →
May WTI futures are off almost 35% since Friday’s close. This drops it below the 17.12 target we first identified in March 2019 when, at 59.32, CL had completed a rising wedge and tagged multiple channel lines. Members might recall the 17.12 target was originally set for April 2023 in keeping with a March 2019 … continue reading →
Many seasoned investors are surprised to see how positively correlated stock returns have been to oil prices. Energy stocks make up 8% of the overall market, so you’d expect them to have some influence. But, thanks to the increasing prominence of algorithms and quantitative trading, the impact has grown well beyond what 8% should contribute … continue reading →
In our Aug 28, 2019 Update on Gold I noted that although GC had just reached our 1560 target, ZN had also reached our 132’100 target. The picture was further muddled by the fact that DXY and GC had been moving in unison – an unusual occurrence, to say the least. ZN’s resistance could put … continue reading →
As enjoyable as it is filling up the Family Truckster for only $2.36/gallon, what if it meant the the death of thousands of Kurds? Here’s what we know. For months, OPEC ignored Trump’s demands to bring down the price of oil. Trump was correctly concerned that spiking oil prices would push inflation to new highs … continue reading →
One nice thing about patterns is that they give you something to hang your hat on. When we drew the Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern on Jul 3 [see: Holiday Headfake] there was nothing in the news to suggest a 100-pt rally in the ensuing week. Yet, SPX and ES landed within a point or … continue reading →