Despite a much hotter than expected NFP print, VIX’s convenient collapse… …has once again convinced investors algos that there’s nothing to worry about. The 20-pt drop in futures following the print was erased within minutes. It’s all in keeping with our year-end forecast, which remains unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →
Algos popped in the past hour on a larger than expected increase in initial jobless claims with the more important NFP due out tomorrow. But, the more dramatic move has been in oil, with CL reaching our next downside target and RB well on its way to its own. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures continue to be supported above their 10-day moving average by a combination of algo factors led by VIX. The Christmas meltup came early this year and, so far, shows no signs of letting up.continued for members… … continue reading →
As noted yesterday, gold and silver reached our target ranges from mid-October. GC came up slightly short of its target from Oct 18 [see: Mideast Worries Mount]… …before being aggressively hammered. Silver nailed its target very precisely before meeting a similar fate. We’re faced with the usual questions after targets are reached: Was that it? … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply this morning, suggesting a break in the upside momentum. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately on the first trading day after what was a torrid November. Bears might take some comfort from the overbought Dow, which has reached Fibonacci and channel resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →
Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply in advance of the open after a $10 billion GM share repurchase announcement and a GDP revision that did nothing to dissuade algos from the notion that the Fed will soon be cutting rates VIX is plumbing new lows. The market is rapidly running out of room for a pullback/backtest of … continue reading →
If you floored the gas pedal in your car, the acceleration would be quite apparent. As your speed climbed higher and higher, though, the rate of acceleration would eventually decline until you reached your car’s maximum speed. No longer accelerating, you would still be traveling at an unsafe speed. Inflation is a lot like that. … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on low volume in advance of a lot of important economic data: tomorrow’s consumer confidence, Wednesday’s GDP, Thursday’s personal income and PCE, and Friday’s ISM manufacturing. We’ve been wondering whether a pullback – any pullback – was in the cards before the end of the year. With VIX being hammered Friday … continue reading →