We will be making changes to the site’s hosting today and should be able to post the 2026 outlook tomorrow. In the meantime, CNBC’s Sarah Eisen just had an interesting conversation with former Fed Chair Janet Yellen regarding Trump’s continuing effort to fire current Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “I find it extremely chilling for Fed … continue reading →
We approached 2025 with a great deal of trepidation: elevated equity valuations, elevated inflation, rising unemployment, impending tariffs, war, etc. It left me feeling bearish, but with a significant caveat. We posted The Year Ahead: 2025 on Jan 13, with the S&P 500 closing at 5836 and offered the following forecast: I’m looking for December … continue reading →
Another day, another dearth of data. But, VIX is off 4% (so far) so the algos are only too happy to begin their run to the barn. I got a good chuckle out of John Williams’ interview on CNBC this morning. While agreeing with me that the latest CPI data was hinky (my word, not … continue reading →
Inflation data was already going to be suspect enough, given that Trump only likes “good” data and that the Secretary of Labor was one of the very few people who hailed Trump’s decision to fire the head of Labor Statistics over her “bad” data. Toss in the absence of October data due to the shutdown, … continue reading →
Futures continue to vacillate about the 50-day moving average as algos grapple with incomplete and contradictory economic data. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales for November will be released “at a later date.” continued for members… Dropping through the SMA50 (6765 for SPX) would be problematic for the bulls. VIX has reversed course again, … continue reading →
At 4.6%, November’s unemployment reached the highest level in 4 years while CPI has been locked in the same 2.4 – 3.0% range for 2 1/2 years. Had it not been for plunging oil and gas prices, it would also be at 4-yr highs. “Inflationary slowdown” doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. So, let’s call … continue reading →
The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at a dismal -3.9 versus expectations of +12.5 and prior +18.7. In traditional “bad news is good news” fashion, futures are up nicely… …but have a lot of work to do to top recent highs. continued for members… Bears are right to be concerned, however, as we’ve seen … continue reading →
Futures are slightly lower as investors look forward to a slew of earnings announcements. This will be the 4th day that ES tests its .886 Fibonacci retracement. continued for members… VIX continues to drive the bulk of the upside, nearing the Sep 2025 and Dec 2024 lows since breaking down in late Nov. The other … continue reading →
While the official vote tally included only three dissents (two who opposed any rate cuts and Trump’s sock puppet Stephen Miran) the dot plot illustrates a much greater degree of dissent. Six showed no interest in pushing through the additional rate cut the market is pricing in. It was this realization that sent ES 92 … continue reading →
Once again, the global economy is in the hands of the 12 members of the FOMC who are arguably more divided in their thinking than at any time in the past 30 years. The problem is stagflation, The solution is elusive. The market has pinned its hopes on a return to easier money, which will … continue reading →