In our last formal update on gold in January [see: Jan 2 Update on Gold] with GC trading at 1529, I noted that although DXY had held up well, gold should benefit from loose Fed policy – but could see a backtest of its SMA200 based on the oil/gas meltdown we expected. I am partial, … continue reading →
A few days ago, we looked at the outsized influence of oil on algorithms. It’s one of the big three: oil, VIX and USDJPY. This morning, it’s USDJPY’s turn. Futures, which were down 17 points late last night, are suddenly up 35 points as we approach the opening bell. It happened in the absence of … continue reading →
Another massive overnight ramp job…nothing new there. But, this one has led ES to an important Fib level where it seems to be pausing: the 2.24 extension of the 2007-2009 drop. Will it matter? The great thing about ES’ overnight ramp jobs is that they allow SPX to gap right over its own overhead resistance … continue reading →
Many seasoned investors are surprised to see how positively correlated stock returns have been to oil prices. Energy stocks make up 8% of the overall market, so you’d expect them to have some influence. But, thanks to the increasing prominence of algorithms and quantitative trading, the impact has grown well beyond what 8% should contribute … continue reading →
Another ramp job on awful economic news which pretty much everybody recognizes understates how bad things really are… …and a 46% spike in WTI futures in 4 days based on a Tweet referencing a deal: (1) which has yet to be confirmed by any of the parties; (2) could probably never get done; (3) which, … continue reading →
“No Joy” is an expression pilots use when they’re unable to see another plane, typically when they’re on a potential collision course. If you can’t spot it, you just might hit it. Like seeing a hilltop or radio tower dead ahead through clearing clouds, it can be fairly nerve-wracking. Given that today’s jobless claims were … continue reading →
S&P futures are off sharply, exceeding a 100-pt drop at their lows as the month- and quarter-end rebalancing has concluded and the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen. As expected, the rising white channel from the recent bottom has broken down and the less aggressive purple one is the next line of defense between here and … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, recovering 25 points from the overnight lows as the algos resume control.VIX continues to call the shots, as it has dropped through both the red neckline and the SMA20. Yet, it continues to bounce every time SPX/ES approach a breakout point, indicating that the bounce might … continue reading →
President Trump says he wants the country “opened up and just raring to go by Easter” — about 2 1/2 weeks from now. Some business leaders and titans of finance are publicly agreeing. Hopefully, this is nothing more than the latest ploy to goose the markets higher. The alternative is that he really plans on … continue reading →
First, let me address the comments in the news this morning that Italy has turned the corner on COVID-19. The number of new cases and deaths has fallen the last two days, which is to be expected with the tightening of quarantining standards. While this is encouraging, it’s important to note that we’ve seen daily … continue reading →