PPI came in at 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% consensus, confirming yesterday’s hotter than expected inflation outlook. Futures initially dipped, though not as much as yesterday. But, like yesterday, VIX was quickly hammered back down to recent lows, reviving equities before the opening bell. continued for members… … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
Jan CPI rose 3% YoY and 0.5% MoM, in line with our expectations but higher than consensus. Core CPI rose even more, reaching 3.3% YoY. PPI will be released tomorrow. Futures are off sharply. continued for members… … continue reading →
GC’s approach to our 3012.80 target from last April [see: Update on Gold and Silver, April 17 2024] reminds us that we’re not the only analysts concerned about tomorrow’s CPI print. As we’ve discussed for the past several months, Jan CPI should surprise to the upside. Will it be enough of a surprise to disrupt … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately as algos react to a VIX smackdown that more than offsets the latest tariff troubles and fading corporate euphoria. It remains to be seen whether the market can hold up after higher than expected inflation is reported on Wednesday. continued for members… … continue reading →
Nonfarm payrolls for January came in at 143K versus 175K expected, though average hourly earnings were +0.5% versus estimates of +0.3%. This was on top of a disappointing outlook for AMZN, currently off almost 3% in the after hours. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly after mixed economic data: hotter than expected productivity and unit labor, but higher than expected initial claims. continued for members… … continue reading →
Last night was perhaps the strangest yet of Trump 2.0. The US is going to somehow “take over” Gaza and develop it as a resort? Right… This was on top of disappointing earnings for both Alphabet and AMD. So, it’s only fitting that our power is out this morning too. continued for members… … continue reading →
Shortly after insisting that there was nothing which could prevent tariffs against Canada and Mexico, Trump called off the tariffs. No amount of political or diplomatic pressure had worked. But, the market – which Trump dearly cares about – called BS on the assertion that tariffs aren’t inflationary. The S&P500’s 2% gap down was apparently … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply as investors run the numbers on the effects of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. As we’ve been warning, tariffs will positively ratchet up inflation which will, in turn, prevent the FOMC from cutting rates any time soon. The one caveat: as equity markets tank, funds will of … continue reading →
December PCE data was in line with expectations at 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY (2.85% for core PCE.) While personal income increased by 0.4% MoM, spending increased by 0.7%. The algos took the data in stride, slipping only slightly on the print. continued for members… … continue reading →