Because They Can

A new week, a new breakout in the after-hours for no particular reason. And, just when the ramp job started to waver, a 5.6% smackdown on VIX – no news, just a reminder not to focus on the pandemic, the millions out of work, our dysfunctional Congress, the coming election battle, Trump’s tax troubles, etc. … continue reading →

Goods Orders Gains: Not Very Durable

Durable goods orders gained a disappointing 0.4% MoM in August versus expectations of a 1.5% gain. This follows an upwardly revised 11.7% in July and 7.7% in June. Ex-transportation also came in at 0.4% versus 3.2% in July.   YoY, total orders are still down 11.3%. Futures responded by slightly trimming their modest losses after bouncing … continue reading →

Fear and Greed

ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel. Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Sep 22, 2020

If a stimulus deal was unlikely before Justice Ginsburg’s death and the current SCOTUS battle, it’s all but impossible now.  Given that the stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment were largely responsible for the economic bounceback, this makes for a very downbeat economic forecast between now and election day. Throw in the prospect of renewed/increased shutdowns … continue reading →

The Pandemic is Still With Us

ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight.  The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →