August nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k versus 165k expected while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, underscoring the Fed’s assessment that the economy is slowing enough to justify a 25 bps rate cut later this month. Futures rallied on the news and are slightly higher after tagging our next downside target overnight. Just … continue reading →
Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18. The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Oil and gas futures have both tagged our next downside targets from June [see: Update on Oil & Gas, June 6, 2024.]. We’ll take a look at the road ahead and what it means for the equity and bond markets. continued for members… … continue reading →
Lots of targets were tagged yesterday, beginning with SPX which nailed our 50-day moving average target. There’s a reason, however, that futures are off even more this morning. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately this morning as ES spends its twelfth day in a narrow range around its .886 Fib retracement. August ISM manufacturing will be released at 10am ET, which should determine on which side of the trend line from Aug 28 futures will fall. continued for members… … continue reading →
July PCE was in line with expectations: 0.2% MoM for headline and core, 2.5% YoY (2.6% excluding food and energy.) Personal income beat at 0.3% versus 0.2% and personal spending beat at 0.5% versus 0.3%. The print does nothing to disturb expectations of a 25 bps rate cut in September. Futures are up modestly, leaving … continue reading →
NVDA fell as much as 7% following earnings and guidance which failed to excite, but has rebounded to a 4.2% loss as we approach the open. If it can’t hold 122.62 after the open, our 110 target is the next significant support. The broader market was already having a tough day before the NVDA print. … continue reading →
Looks like yet another day of treading water, waiting for this afternoon’s NVDA earnings and Friday’s PCE print. Futures are off modestly following seven sessions during which ES was unable to top its .886 Fib retracement. But, attention should also be paid to our yield curve model which is sending a strong warning to equity … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement. continued for members… … continue reading →
In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started. He … continue reading →