VIX and CL are giving the algos plenty to love this morning. VIX is plumbing new, all-time lows and CL continues yesterday’s rebound on its way to our upside target.Yesterday, VIX’s actions were enough to break SPX out of its falling purple channel and close a minor gap. This morning, there’s a good chance of … continue reading →
What a difference a week makes. I was hoping that taking a week off would see some semblance of sanity return to the markets. Apparently, that was too much to expect. A week ago, the US dollar pairs had reached long-term objectives, SPX was running out of steam and VIX’s all-time low was set way … continue reading →
We’re off the week of Jul 17-21. See you again on Monday, Jul 24! … continue reading →
In our last update on the Nikkei [see: Mar 23 Update] with NKD at 19190, we called for a 3% drop to support at 18631 and a subsequent 9% rise to 20286. As it turned out, the drop was a little deeper than expected. But, the subsequent rebound nailed our upside target, reaching 20320 on … continue reading →
If the algos had their way, the economic data might not even be reported. As expected, inflation is still nowhere to be found. The USD, which was doing its best to hold its ground on the back of recent hawkish Fed comments, has plunged below key support. Yet, futures are still in the green.Is this … continue reading →
If you enjoyed watching Janet Yellen spend several hours avoiding saying anything remotely interesting yesterday, you should love today’s Senate Banking Committee testimony. In the meantime, EURUSD has reversed at our upside target and broken trend to the downside……even as USDJPY makes a feeble attempt at stabilizing.The net result is a dollar index which seems … continue reading →
On May 16, we adopted the position that weak inflation – driven primarily by oil prices that we expected to plunge after a brief rally – would lead the EURUSD to rally sharply [see: May 16 Update on EURUSD.] Our forecast, shown below, also required DXY to make new lows — which most analysts derided … continue reading →
Everywhere you look, another hedgie is throwing in the towel — pronouncing the market overbought and susceptible to a big drop as a result of Fed normalizing. I agree that rate normalization would be devastating for stocks. But, folks, an additional 1/4% in Fed Funds is far from normal. Call me when the 10-year gets … continue reading →
With oil sliding and the USD on the ropes, equities are having a tough time maintaining the exuberance of Friday’s snap-back rally. ES has given up a 7.5 point rise and is trading slightly in the red. This leaves SPX with an opportunity to extend last week’s slump, but only if currencies cooperate. As we’ve … continue reading →
To everything (turn, turn, turn) There is a season (turn, turn, turn) And a time to every purpose, under heaven The dollar’s dip has been a headwind for the markets, but it’s served a purpose: resetting various carry trades and putting things on firmer footing for the next stage. I don’t know whether central bankers … continue reading →