Twelve days ago, we noted that the equal-weighted S&P 500 had reached important resistance at the top of a channel dating back to the 2007 top [see: Run, Don’t Walk.]At the time, RSP hadn’t quite reached the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. Now it has. The only reason futures are up 23 points is because, as we … continue reading →
The algos are pleased with themselves this morning, pumping futures 30 points higher on the fact that VIX crashed over 7% overnight. At one point, the SMA20 was only 5 cents below the SMA20.Friday’s dip didn’t quite reach our 3730 backtest target – which, ironically, leaves the door open to an even lower low. Can … continue reading →
Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.] We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately this morning in keeping with the algo signals we’ve been watching. It remains to be seen whether the gentle flag pattern exhibited over the past week can hold past OPEX. continued for members… … continue reading →
The last time we were this bearish on oil and gas was on October 3, 2018 [see: VIX Takes the Plunge.] Our reasoning at the time: CL and RB [have] not only reached overhead resistance by our measure, but must deal with inflation that’s too high, bearish API data, another round of Trump tweeting, and … continue reading →
It was a close shave, but ZN’s falling red channel has survived – at least so far. The runaway 10Y yield gave up all of its gains – and not a minute too soon for the bears. continued for members… … continue reading →
Quick note: BTC backtested the top of the broken pink channel as detailed in our Jan 7 post [see: Jan 7 Update on BTC.] continued for members… … continue reading →
ZN broke down from its rising red channel back on the 6th. Since then, it has found support in a falling channel – from which it is now threatening to break down.This is a moment of truth for bonds and the many correlated assets such as GC, shown above. Stocks might not be amused. continued … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply this morning as expected per our yield curve model and as indicated by our currency and oil/gas forecasts [see: Run, Don’t Walk.] We should find out shortly whether this is a garden variety buy-the-dip opportunity or something more substantial. continued for members… … continue reading →
At least that’s what RSP, the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF, is saying. It has finally reached the top of the same channel that marked the Oct 2007 top and the Jan 2018 top. It should also reach, on the open, the 1.272 Fib extension of its drop from Feb 2020. And, it’s doing this … continue reading →