In our last update on RUT [see: Feb 13 Update] I noted that RUT had returned to test an important Fib level at 1392 and the top of a long-term channel after a very modest setback the first time around a few months earlier. The path forward was a little murky, so I laid out … continue reading →
SPX came within 2 points of our upside target yesterday in a VIX-inspired meltup that was focused on getting and keeping the index above the 2500 mark. While VIX has already staged obvious breakdowns of its rising yellow TL and rising purple channel, it has managed to keep stocks on the rise by simply drifting… … continue reading →
When I first started pebblewriter.com over six years ago bad news was bad news, dips sometimes developed into routs, and there was good money to be made from directional bets. We profited handsomely from shorting in July 2011, September 2012, May 2015, and November 2015. But, central bankers have become increasingly involved in propping up … continue reading →
VIX, USDJPY and CL are all working to keep stocks afloat in the run-up to this week’s FOMC meeting. Aside from its rising purple channel breaking down, VIX dropped below its recent low of 10.02 on Friday. This is nothing new, as it’s important to central banks that their policies be seen as beneficial to … continue reading →
SPX backtested the former highs yesterday, coming within 0.46 of our downside target before being magically levitated by the threat of a drop in VIX and intraday pushes in both DXY and CL. Unfortunately, for the bulls, those pushes have fizzled as real, live geopolitical concerns have once again bubbled to the surface.continued for members… … continue reading →
CPI came in at 1.9%, exactly where we expected and good enough to keep DXY steady…for now. From Was That It? on Sep 6: The EIA is showing a very healthy monthly increase in average gas prices for August (3.9% MoM and 8.4% YoY.) I believe this is understated, but my back of the envelope … continue reading →
I update the USDJPY charts every day, but it’s been a while since we last took a look at the pair from 30,000 feet. In our May 17 Update, we noted it had rejoined its well-formed falling white channel and was headed for a tag of the rising white channel bottom — though there were … continue reading →
I’m sure you get almost as tired reading it as I do writing it. SPX will make new highs today on yet another crash in VIX. The latest came courtesy of a rising channel (below, in purple) which has ever-so-conveniently broken down. The algos are feasting on its remains. When the channel broke down the … continue reading →
For most investors, there’s nothing wrong with passive investing. Most of the time, it works just fine: minimizes expenses, avoids “underperformance” and saves taxes. And, it’s becoming increasingly popular. JPMorgan estimates that fundamental discretionary traders account for only 10% of daily trading volume. But, we all remember 2007-2009, when a little market timing would have … continue reading →
USDJPY and VIX have driven futures 13 points higher this morning, even as gasoline prices continue to plunge.continued for members… … continue reading →