NFP Beats

NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →

Crossing the Rubicon?

ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago.  At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →

Thinking About…a Correction

Will the addition of another “thinking about” keep stocks aloft until the next FOMC meeting?  Futures aren’t looking so hot, perhaps because WTI has now joined RBOB in breaking trend, 10Y yields have gapped lower, and VIX broke out of its falling wedge. The algos are not happy. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Failure to Capitulate

Futures have given up all their Tesla gains and are pointing to a slightly lower open for the S&P this morning.Apparently, a threatened breakdown in VIX just isn’t as effective as it used to be. What we have here is a failure to capitulate (apologies to Cool Hand Luke for the cheap rip-off of a … continue reading →

Currencies: A Turning Point

Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →

Shades of 2015

SPX reached our Fibonacci .886 retracement target yesterday. It’s a level I never imagined seeing after stocks reached important support back on March 23. But, then, I never imagined $5 trillion in liquidity  – equal to the nation’s Q2 economic output according to the Atlanta Fed – being pumped into the economy in the second … continue reading →

Frontrunning the Fed

Ultra low interest rates don’t do much for traditional banking earnings, but they’re pretty fantastic for highly leveraged banks such as Goldman that are only too happy to front run the tsunami of Fed liquidity injections. Between GS and more positive vaccine news (Moderna) the futures have pushed to higher highs, settling the question as … continue reading →

PPI Disappoints

The producer price index missed this morning, coming in at -0.2% versus consensus and prior read of +0.4%. Core also missed at -0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%. Although the market has certainly staged a V-shaped recovery, someone forgot to check with the economy. Not to worry, because Gilead was quickly out with a press release … continue reading →

VIX’s Important Test

Futures are up sharply on a better than expected jobs report: up 4.8 million, and the unemployment rate dropping to 11.1%. Initial claims came in at 1.43 million, with continuing claims rising slightly to 19.3 million. The direction didn’t surprise anyone, but the numbers surprised most. The reopening of most of the country over the … continue reading →