Undone?

ES tagged our next downside target this morning……tagging the 4319 target we posted back on Jan 3 [see: De Facto Shutdown.] The only question now is whether stocks will get the big bounce they usually do after a 10% correction or whether they’ve come undone. In other words, I have this 1969 Guess Who classic … continue reading →

COMP Signals More Pain Ahead

A little over a week ago, COMP made a hard bounce off its 200-DMA, gapping much higher the following day. Yesterday, it plunged below its 200-DMA and closed there – not a good sign for the bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →

The De Facto Shutdown

Companies and individuals alike are cutting back their activities as the omicron outbreak continues to accelerate. Many companies, short of employees, supplies, or customers are raising pay, trimming back hours or cutting product offerings in order to stay afloat. Individuals are cutting back their activities in order to stay healthy. Though not official, the shutdown … continue reading →

No More Free Lunch

The Fed’s experiment of pouring trillions of dollars into the markets is coming to an inglorious end. Even though an accelerated taper will still results in hundreds of billions in additional liquidity over the next several months, the writing is on the wall. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said it well yesterday on CBS’ … continue reading →

Inflation Highest in Nearly 40 Years

At 6.81%, headline inflation is now the highest it has been since March 1982 (6.78%.)  Originally driven by sharply rising oil and gas prices… …it is now broad-based and anything but transitory, with medical commodities the only category below the Fed’s original 2% target. Algos responded with the usual VIX smackdown which, not surprisingly, began … continue reading →

A Death Cross from VIX

It’s only happened 4 times in the past five years. The last time it happened was on Feb 27, 2020.  SPX had reached a new all-time high of 3393.52 a week earlier and had sold off 12% so far on news of the new coronavirus reaching US shores.  We were in the minority of analysts … continue reading →