about pebblewriter

As “pebblewriter” I’ve enjoyed certain benefits of anonymity.  For instance, I can critique companies and central banks without having to worry about having my tires slashed or a club membership denied. But, folks often like to know whom they’re getting in bed with when they subscribe. In the way of general information:

I hold an undergraduate degree from Stephen F Austin with majors in Economics and Mathematics and an MBA from the Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA. I have been in the business since 1979, when I joined the Merrill Lynch management program fresh out of college.  I worked in management for several years before becoming a retail stockbroker in Dallas, TX at the ripe old age of 27.

Several years later, I moved to LA and worked full-time for Oppenheimer & Co, managing money for wealthy individuals and small institutions while also attending business school full-time.  While at Oppenheimer, I developed an options-based risk arbitrage strategy that was quite successful.  I also worked part-time as an analyst for our M&A group and earned my CFA in three years (I don’t recall sleeping during this time!)

Following business school, I joined Bankers Trust Co. in corporate finance, working mostly on real estate-related transactions on the West Coast.  Family matters required a brief return to Dallas, where I worked for an institutional real estate investment manager in a senior sales and product development capacity.

I then returned to LA where, over the next 15 years, I held senior positions in institutional asset management for such firms such as Bank of America, ABN-AMRO and Fiduciary Trust Co.  Most of my work involved sales and client service for major institutional clients on the West Coast and throughout the Pacific Rim, but I also interfaced with large consulting firms such as Frank Russell, Wilshire Associates and Callan.

I retired (or, so I thought) in August 2001, when Fiduciary was acquired by Franklin Templeton.  At the time, I had been commuting back and forth from LA to the 95th floor of 2 World Trade Center.  Following the attacks a month later, I decided to spend more time with my family and indulge a long-held interest in the film business.

I formed a small production company at Warner Bros. in LA and learned all about writing and producing films.  I developed about a dozen projects, sold a few scripts, almost got a TV show off the ground.  I kept a hand in investing primarily through the Tech Coast Angels and by serving on the boards of several startups.

Somewhere along the way, I started studying the markets again – eventually starting pebblewriter.blogspot.com on May 2, 2011 when I thought the market was getting close to peaking (May 2 was the top.) I attracted a number of followers a couple of months later when I accurately forecast the 2011 correction to the day/dollar.

I started the current site pebblewriter.com in March 2012 and have grown it into one of the more successful market forecasting services around — challenging the conventional wisdom that one can’t time the markets. I’ve had plenty of ups and downs, but have managed to help hedge funds, mutual funds, and other professional investors achieve very high returns.

I took two years off in 2013-2015 to manage a small hedge fund that, ultimately, was not successful. I lacked the size and the resources to manage both the portfolio and the administrative load. Ultimately, I came to the realization that I was a much better market forecaster than trader. Since January 2016, I have refocused my efforts on pebblewriter.com where my trading advices have averaged in excess of 17% per month.

I live on the Central California coast with my wife and two daughters (17 and 13).  I have a son who’s a successful financial planner in Austin and another daughter who works in the film business in London.  On those rare occasions when I’m not hunched over my computer, I enjoy travel, sailing and basketball.  I am a private pilot, SCUBA divemaster and play a mean game of H-O-R-S-E.

Last, I am one of only two people I know who has survived two lightning strikes in one day — which makes me either incredibly lucky or a marked man, depending on your point of view.  As far as I’m concerned, timing is everything… and, every day above ground is a blessing.

 

p.w.