John Williams: “Not so Fast”

If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll.  On CNBC this morning: “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten … continue reading →

On the Brink

While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

Economic data came in as expected except for Philly Fed – a huge miss at -19.4 versus -5.0 consensus and -8.7 prior. But, it was the former dove turned chief hawk Jim Bullard who decided enough is enough, suggesting rates could reach as high as 7% before inflation is tamed. Futures were not amused. It’s … continue reading →

Just When You Thought it was Safe…

The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →