pebblewriter

Tag: 2s10s

  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 8, 2024

    Futures have rebounded almost .50% after testing recent lows yesterday.

    Traders remain focused on tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • John Williams: “Not so Fast”

    If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll.  On CNBC this morning:

    “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.”

    Futures were not amused, dropping from slightly higher to slightly lower as he spoke even though today is OPEX [see: Does OPEX Matter? (which desperately needs updating)].

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  • On the Brink

    While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious.

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  • A Swing and a Miss

    Economic data came in as expected except for Philly Fed – a huge miss at -19.4 versus -5.0 consensus and -8.7 prior. But, it was the former dove turned chief hawk Jim Bullard who decided enough is enough, suggesting rates could reach as high as 7% before inflation is tamed. Futures were not amused.

    It’s almost inconceivable that ES/SPX won’t tag their SMA200 or channel tops this time. But, even though OPEX is tomorrow, it’s looking that way at the moment.

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  • Just When You Thought it was Safe…

    The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22…

    …is playing out very nicely indeed.

    Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking another gander.Needless to say, our downside targets remain unchanged.

    BTW, Boston folks, I’ll be downtown today and Friday. Drop me a line if you’d like to meet up.

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