Charts I’m Watching: May 12, 2024

Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16. The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card. continued for … continue reading →

Fourth Time a Charm?

This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights. As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue … continue reading →

On the Brink…Again

Already elevated on AAPL’s announcement of a historic buyback, futures popped on a weaker than expected jobs report. The only problem is that this ramp puts them right back at the top of the channel which has prompted three previous tumbles. Will this one be any different? continued for members… … continue reading →

Stagflationary Data…Again

Futures are off sharply on a very stagflationary offering of economic data. Q1 GDP rose at only 1.6% versus expectations of 2.4%, while core PCE prices rose 3.7% against expectations of 3.4%. The PCE index itself is due out tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that unemployment claims for the week ended April 20 came … continue reading →

Tit for Tat

Futures tanked overnight on news of Israel’s rocket attack on Iran, only to recover all their losses as we go to press. The latest retaliation is being characterized as a tit for tat. But it’s easy to imagine the Plunge Protection Team working overtime to calm markets by hammering VIX and WTI back down from … continue reading →

Update on Gold & Silver: Apr 17, 2024

Gold and silver both came within 1% of our upside targets for them earlier this week. With inflationary pressures once again top of mind, have they exhausted their upside potential?  We’ll update our long-term forecasts this morning. continued for members… … continue reading →

Retail Sales’ Strong Beat

Retail sales came in roughly double the Street’s estimates at 0.7% versus consensus of 0.3-0.4%. Ex-auto was just as strong: 1.1% versus 0.5% consensus. Combined with an Empire State Manufacturing index disappointment of -14.3 versus -6.0 expected, futures sold off for all of 30 seconds or so before rebounding to higher highs. The retail sales … continue reading →

Premature Escalation

As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, … continue reading →

PPI: Lower Than Expected

In contrast to yesterday’s CPI print, PPI came in below estimates at 0.2% headline and core. Futures erased their sharp overnight losses which saw them nail our next downside target and now point to modest gains. A bounce here would be more convincing if SPX were to also reach its 50-day moving average. continued for … continue reading →