The 10Y’s Warning

10Y yields briefly poked above the Mar 2021 highs, adding to the drama surrounding next week’s CPI report. Meanwhile, December NFP came in at +199K, less than half consensus, while the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% and wages continued to strengthen.  Remember, this was all pre-omicron. Futures were not amused. While ES held its 50-DMA … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Dec 6, 2021

VIX tagged our 34.84 target on Friday – an important breakout in risk – before tumbling back into the safe zone. With other factors holding their ground and equities’ 100-DMAs still untagged, it’s not at all clear that the worst is over. continued for members… … continue reading →

DXY: Finally Breaking Out?

Stocks tumbled yesterday on inflation numbers that call into question the pace of the Fed’s taper and rate increases. Then they rallied overnight on an 11.4% collapse in VIX. The most significant chart on my screens at the moment, though, is the US dollar. DXY has had great difficulty breaking out of a tightly controlled … continue reading →

CPI: Out of Control

CPI soared to 6.24% YoY in October, well above the 5.9% expected and the highest since Nov 1990. The MoM print of 0.9% and the Core CPI print of 4.2% also came in hotter than expected and set multiyear records. Put simply, the Fed has lost control.As we’ve discussed, inflation continues to become more broad-based … continue reading →

Out of Sync

SPX tagged a significant Fibonacci extension Friday, but ES came up short of its equivalent target at 4728. Meanwhile, CL is faltering and USDJPY is rolling over as VIX faces a bullish 10/20 cross. What does it all mean? Surprisingly, the answer might lie with the bond market. continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2021

The 531K payrolls beat and Pfizer COVID-19 pill could influence the taper schedule. The 4.9% increase in wages should. Energy and food prices might well fall over the coming months. But, wages are sticky. Whether due to contracts, minimum wage rules, or just market forces, they are very difficult to reduce. While it’s true that … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Oct 27, 2021

Equity markets rarely fail to rally into the end of the year.  But, there have been several noteworthy Q4 exceptions over the years, each of them marked by VIX’s bounce off well-established trend lines. Note that SPX’s yellow channel has been rising at a compouned 12.2% per year since the 2009 bottom – historically a … continue reading →

Because They Can Can Can

Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print…  More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices.  In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →

OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →