In a move that surprised no one, the BoJ left their monetary policy unchanged unhinged. The policy statement still reflects the looney tunes, magical thinking that has always epitomized their decisions: they’ll raise rates when inflation reaches 2% – even though inflation is well above 2% and has been for over a year. Annualizing the … continue reading →
Tag Archives: BOJ
We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade. The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns … continue reading →
Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… …and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling. continued for members… … continue reading →
Japan’s inflation hit a 40-year high in October, driven by a policy of placing stock market gains above all else. When Japan first adopted negative interest rates, the argument was that it would help end the country’s deflationary spiral and return inflation to a 2% goal. Now that inflation is nearly twice as high as … continue reading →
Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way. Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce? continued for … continue reading →
In our last update on NKD [see: Nov 30 Update], I somewhat snarkily disparaged the index’s legitimacy. The Nikkei 225 is less a securities index than it is a measure of how much intervention the Bank of Japan feels like throwing its way. It’s what the Dow aspires to be when it grows up. At … continue reading →
The Nikkei 225 is less a securities index than it is a measure of how much intervention the Bank of Japan feels like throwing its way. It’s what the Dow aspires to be when it grows up. So, it’s only at times like this that I bother to post it anymore. continued for members… … continue reading →
I know what you’re thinking: it’s “don’t fight the Fed.” While that’s generally true, too, the Bank of Japan is the central bank which most conspicuously wears its balance sheet on its sleeve. When my charts are a farrago of bearish indicators, but the Nikkei pushes up through resistance? I’ve learned to ignore the indicators … continue reading →
Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks. And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels. ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds. Brussels is the de … continue reading →
The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST: 6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out. EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →