Hot CPI Dashes Rate Cut Hopes

January CPI came in hotter than expected, taking a March rate cut off the table and casting serious doubts on a May rate cut. Futures are off sharply, shedding over 1% to reach the bottom of the rising green channel from Oct 2023. continued for members… … continue reading →

NFP Soars

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  … continue reading →

Q4 GDP Beats

Q4 advanced GDP came in at 3.3% annualized versus 2.0% estimates and full year 2023’s 2.5%. The PCE price index and durable goods orders came in as expected, though durable goods ex-transportation came in sharply higher than estimates.  The numbers… Futures had already bounced at the rising white channel midline, but extended their gains after … continue reading →

Update on Gold and Silver: Jan 24, 2024

In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22. It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced … continue reading →

PCE Gives Fed Room to Cut

PCE came in below expectations. Headline was -0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Core was +0.1% and 3.2% YoY.  This was the smallest rise since April 21, and offers the Fed additional room to consider cuts in 2024 should the trend continue.Futures added to modest gains after the print.  The key issue remains: whether the moderating … continue reading →

VIX: “Don’t Worry About It”

Despite a much hotter than expected NFP print, VIX’s convenient collapse… …has once again convinced investors algos that there’s nothing to worry about. The 20-pt drop in futures following the print was erased within minutes. It’s all in keeping with our year-end forecast, which remains unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on Gold & Silver: Dec 5, 2023

As noted yesterday, gold and silver reached our target ranges from mid-October.  GC came up slightly short of its target from Oct 18 [see: Mideast Worries Mount]… …before being aggressively hammered. Silver nailed its target very precisely before meeting a similar fate. We’re faced with the usual questions after targets are reached: Was that it? … continue reading →