A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

A Broken Record

Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →

The Same, but Different

Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target.  Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight.  So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →

Anticipation

It certainly looks like we’re almost there. The eminis seem to be already there… The EURUSD is clinging by its fingernails… The dollar looks ready to rumble… The USDJPY is making a bid for an IH&S, but has run smack dab into that yellow channel midline again…moment of truth for the yen… This morning’s dip … continue reading →

XLF: Playing Catch Up

On April 2, 2012, SPX completed a Butterfly Pattern at 1421 — the 1.272 extension of the July – October 2011 plunge.  It provided a great entry point for the fledgling pebblewriter.com’s first major short position. We scored over 20% in about 2 months [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] trading the 11% decline. XLF hadn’t … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →

Update on Bonds: Mar 07, 2013

If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.)  Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →