That Sinking Feeling

As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →

Q1 GDP Slumps Further

Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →

No Pressure

Futures are off about 2% following yesterday’s FOMC announcement and press conference – the closest we’ll probably ever get to a mea culpa – which was accompanied by the usual algo nonsense. Suffice it to say, traders have come to their senses and markets are once again reflecting the likelihood of the Fed tightening into … continue reading →

PPI Still Running Plenty Hot

PPI dropped just a bit from last month, registering 10.8% YoY (unadjusted) for May versus 10.9% for April and 11.5% for March.  The MoM tally was +0.8% for May versus 0.4% for April. The very slight drop in the YoY data is unlikely to assuage the Fed’s fears about inflation being out of control. But, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 13, 2022

ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Reaches a New 40-Year High

CPI soared to a new 40-year high: 8.6% YoY and 1.0% MoM. Core also exceeded consensus, coming in at 6.0%. Futures are not amused, as this takes anything less than a 50 bps rate hike next week off the table. A 75 bps hike is suddenly a real possibility. Needless to say, our analog remains … continue reading →

Economic Data Deluge Begins

It’s a big week for economic data, with earnings and outlook announcements already setting a bearish tone.  First up this morning is April new home sales, which came in at 591k units – a 16.6% drop from March and a 32.9% plunge from April 2021. It barely beat the 2020 pandemic lows. As everyone now … continue reading →

Analog Watch: May 13, 2022

Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day to break a new analog!  With SPX nailing our downside target and futures breaking out of the falling wedge pattern yesterday, we’re off to the races. These things don’t always work out. But, when they do, it can be a career-making trading opportunity. The one which worked out … continue reading →