Futures nailed our 4424 target overnight. Most will attribute it to Powell’s (completely unsurprising) resolve to support the economy the stock market. But, we know that the algos were spurred into action by VIX’s drop back into the falling channel from Mar 2020 and its dip below its 200-DMA. Remember, it ain’t over till it’s … continue reading →
If you liked yesterday, today is shaping up as more of the same. But, there are still a few warning signs tugging at the market’s sleeve. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are continuing their meltup in the pre-market on a 4% bounce in crude oil and the usual overnight slump in VIX. continued for members… … continue reading →
The correction is gathering steam, with ES off 40 points earlier this morning before getting a bounce. From a technical standpoint the culprit is VIX, which broke out of the falling channel which has guided stocks higher since March 2020. Our downside targets remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →
The Fed detests gold and silver because, like higher interest rates, they are a stark reminder of the soaring inflation the Fed hopes we’ll ignore. Interest rates can be manipulated lower by buying up every bond in sight. The Fed has been doing this to the tune of $120 billion per month. Gold and silver, … continue reading →
I’ve recently discussed this very issue with several friends who are a little nervous about the sharp runup in prices…and very nervous about the prospect of a selloff. Most of us remember how ugly things got during the Great Financial Crisis: the sharp rise and the much sharper plunge when the bubble burst. According to … continue reading →
As we noted yesterday, EURUSD is finally fulfilling our expectation of a breakdown from the trend established at the Mar 2020 lows. This move has been a long time coming and has potentially significant consequences for the DXY. continued for members… … continue reading →
Under ordinary circumstances, a 2.3% MoM bump in Durable Goods orders would be very welcome – especially on the heels of last month’s -1.3% print. When inflation is a growing concern due to the Fed’s largesse, however, it complicates things. For instance, might it cause the Fed to take its foot off the gas? Not … continue reading →
ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →
Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →