August nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k versus 165k expected while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, underscoring the Fed’s assessment that the economy is slowing enough to justify a 25 bps rate cut later this month. Futures rallied on the news and are slightly higher after tagging our next downside target overnight. Just … continue reading →
Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18. The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started. He … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately after weaker than expected housing data and in anticipation of next week’s Jackson Hole Fedspeak. ES reached our next upside target a little ahead of schedule, and is now backtesting the purple TL from recent lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are slightly higher in a week certain to be buffeted by a bevy of important economic data. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up slightly as the FOMC begins its July meeting. But, it’s a continuation of the consolidation that began last week. continued for members… … continue reading →
A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year. RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 … continue reading →
This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights. As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue … continue reading →
Already elevated on AAPL’s announcement of a historic buyback, futures popped on a weaker than expected jobs report. The only problem is that this ramp puts them right back at the top of the channel which has prompted three previous tumbles. Will this one be any different? continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply on a very stagflationary offering of economic data. Q1 GDP rose at only 1.6% versus expectations of 2.4%, while core PCE prices rose 3.7% against expectations of 3.4%. The PCE index itself is due out tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that unemployment claims for the week ended April 20 came … continue reading →