Yes, it was impressive. AAPL, FB, GOOGL and AMZN delivered big time. Yet, AMZN, the one that was best positioned to clean up, hasn’t yet broken above a key Fib level, let alone the top of the 20-year old channel which marked the July 13 reversal. If it does, fine, bears should prepare for a … continue reading →
Will the addition of another “thinking about” keep stocks aloft until the next FOMC meeting? Futures aren’t looking so hot, perhaps because WTI has now joined RBOB in breaking trend, 10Y yields have gapped lower, and VIX broke out of its falling wedge. The algos are not happy. continued for members… … continue reading →
I saw an interesting interview on CNBC this morning where the guest observed how important overnight trading was to the market’s overall performance. Andrew Ross Sorkin offered data that if one bought the S&P 500 at the close of each day of trading and sold at the next morning’s open, they would be up 650% … continue reading →
It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative. Gee, could 25% … continue reading →
It’s a day we all knew was coming — over 1 million cases of coronavirus cases officially diagnosed in the US, over 3 million worldwide. Experts such as Scott Gottlieb, former head of the FDA, estimate that actual US cases are 10 to 20 times the reported figure. Deaths currently stand at 56,803 – about … continue reading →
In our last formal update on gold in January [see: Jan 2 Update on Gold] with GC trading at 1529, I noted that although DXY had held up well, gold should benefit from loose Fed policy – but could see a backtest of its SMA200 based on the oil/gas meltdown we expected. I am partial, … continue reading →
The futures are lock limit down again this morning, with ETFs trading in the after-hours indicating losses on the (eventual) open of up to 10%. This is probably not what the Fed had in mind when they unleashed the massive, emergency rate cut and $700 billion in new QE an hour before the futures opened … continue reading →
After weeks of gathering clouds, the storm we’ve been watching has finally arrived. S&P futures are lock limit down just a few points above our next downside target. Not surprisingly, all of our other targets across currencies, commodities and fixed income have either tagged or exceeded our next downside targets, with more to go once … continue reading →
Futures are higher this morning on what is expected to be a non-event FOMC announcement and press conference. I suspect attention will again return to currencies, as the US dollar’s surge over the past month, combined with the big drop we had anticipated in oil and gas, will serve to tamp down inflation fears. Of … continue reading →
It was October 1989 and the stock market was in trouble. Two years after crashing 36% (including 20% in a single session) the S&P 500 had made a comeback and had climbed back to new all-time highs. But high inflation, slipping junk bond prices and failing S&Ls were in the headlines daily. On October 13, … continue reading →