In our last major update [see: Jan 26 Update] we noted that gold, 1355 at the time, had reached the same price level at which it had frequently reversed. Even though we’d had a bullseye at 1377-1380 for over a year, it had stopped short several times. GC is sitting just below the neckline of … continue reading →
That’s a relief! For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →
I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks. The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500. Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield. As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →
As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →
Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive. It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →
Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks. That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →
In my younger days I played Rubgy, a drinking party with a little sport thrown in to make it legit. I don’t know if it’s still so, but back in those days, when the parties (always with the opposing side, much more civilized than American football) reached a certain level of inebriation, someone would start … continue reading →