Still Not Transitory

At some point – perhaps after six months of hot inflation data – the Fed will be forced to admit that inflation pressure are not transitory. This morning we saw evidence that March personal incomes spiked by 21.1%, the most since 1946. Personal spending for the month shot up 4.2%, the most since last June. … continue reading →

Not Transitory, Not Even Close

If gasoline prices remain where they are or continue to rise, Powell will be just plain wrong about inflation being transitory. This is what to expect if gas prices were to flatline at this level through December. Unless most of the other components of inflation were to nosedive, CPI will remain well above 2% for … continue reading →

What Inflation?

The Case-Shiller Home Price index rose 12% YoY – the fastest pace since February 2006 – meaning even fewer Americans have a shot at purchasing or renting a house. Ironically, the burden falls mostly on the low-income families that the Fed claims to be most concerned about. Thank goodness we don’t have an inflation problem. … continue reading →

Update on Oil & Gas: Apr 26, 2021

March durable goods orders disappointed this morning, coming in at 0.5% versus the 2.3% rebound expected after February’s -1.2% flop. We couldn’t help wonder whether the data were somehow related to the first (tiny) breakdown in RBOB prices since the Mar 23 lows. Given that oil and gas are poised to deliver a huge increase … continue reading →

Last Call

Despite a few tense moments midday, ES held the TL of support from last Wednesday and has rebounded to within 7.50 points of the important Fibonacci extension and channel top at 4153.62.Will the substantial overhead resistance at these levels matter this time? We’ll know very, very soon. continued for members… … continue reading →

Election Aftermath

Futures were all over the map last night, with ES’ 113-pt range dictated almost entirely by factors as opposed to election results – which, contrary to Trump’s declaration, are still AWOL. Note that ES tagged our IH&S neckline (also the former H&S neckline) target where it is currently running out of gas. As expected, the … continue reading →

The Road Ahead

Futures ramped higher overnight, continuing to dance to the tune of VIX’s smackdown and ongoing rumors of a fiscal stimulus deal… …and ignoring troubling pandemic facts. But, we’re finally into October and Q4. And, as we discussed yesterday, things are about to get very interesting. continued for members… … continue reading →