The Road Ahead

Futures ramped higher overnight, continuing to dance to the tune of VIX’s smackdown and ongoing rumors of a fiscal stimulus deal… …and ignoring troubling pandemic facts. But, we’re finally into October and Q4. And, as we discussed yesterday, things are about to get very interesting. continued for members… … continue reading →

Because They Can

A new week, a new breakout in the after-hours for no particular reason. And, just when the ramp job started to waver, a 5.6% smackdown on VIX – no news, just a reminder not to focus on the pandemic, the millions out of work, our dysfunctional Congress, the coming election battle, Trump’s tax troubles, etc. … continue reading →

The Pandemic is Still With Us

ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight.  The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →

Powell: What Did I Say!?

I saw an interesting interview on CNBC this morning where the guest observed how important overnight trading was to the market’s overall performance. Andrew Ross Sorkin offered data that if one bought the S&P 500 at the close of each day of trading and sold at the next morning’s open, they would be up 650% … continue reading →

Update on DJIA: Mar 18, 2020

In our last dedicated update on the Dow [see: July 2019 Update], we noted the intersection of a number of overhead resistance features in its chart and offered some thoughts on its downside potential if it managed to reverse. Note that our 18974 target represents a backtest of the red channel from which DJIA broke … continue reading →

The Storm Finally Arrives

After weeks of gathering clouds, the storm we’ve been watching has finally arrived. S&P futures are lock limit down just a few points above our next downside target. Not surprisingly, all of our other targets across currencies, commodities and fixed income have either tagged or exceeded our next downside targets, with more to go once … continue reading →

Decision Time, Again

We start this morning’s post with a peek at the Russell 2000 as it perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing the broader markets this morning. Up until September 2017, RUT followed a well-defined rising channel shown below in yellow.  Like all channels, it was defined by the tops and bottoms along the way. The only problem: … continue reading →

Update on DJIA: Jul 29, 2019

In our last dedicated post six months ago, we discussed the critical resistance DJIA faced: the neckline of a large H&S Pattern. …it’s important to note that like SPX and COMP, [DJIA] is backtesting a point of potentially strong resistance — the neckline of a large Head & Shoulder Pattern that never completely paid off. … continue reading →