A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

PCE Just High Enough

Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →

The Confidence Game

Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →

Powell Back in the Spotlight

It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →

VIX: Decision Time

VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities? continued for members… … continue reading →