August nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k versus 165k expected while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, underscoring the Fed’s assessment that the economy is slowing enough to justify a 25 bps rate cut later this month. Futures rallied on the news and are slightly higher after tagging our next downside target overnight. Just … continue reading →
Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18. The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Oil and gas futures have both tagged our next downside targets from June [see: Update on Oil & Gas, June 6, 2024.]. We’ll take a look at the road ahead and what it means for the equity and bond markets. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement. continued for members… … continue reading →
In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started. He … continue reading →
In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go. GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50. GC reached … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately after weaker than expected housing data and in anticipation of next week’s Jackson Hole Fedspeak. ES reached our next upside target a little ahead of schedule, and is now backtesting the purple TL from recent lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are slightly higher in a week certain to be buffeted by a bevy of important economic data. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up slightly as the FOMC begins its July meeting. But, it’s a continuation of the consolidation that began last week. continued for members… … continue reading →
A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year. RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 … continue reading →