Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target. Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight. So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →
As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout. Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI. Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday, we got a taste of what happens to United Airlines passengers who are “disruptive and belligerent.” In what is being described as one of the biggest PR fails in recent memory, United CEO Oscar Munoz defended the action taken to forcefully drag an Asian-American doctor from a flight that United had overbooked. No … continue reading →
SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected. All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout. There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →
Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks. That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →
After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target. It should be enough … continue reading →
With the S&P futures off around 100 points Tuesday night, I noted that if the selloff lasted, SPX had a very good chance of tagging the .786 retracement at 2034.97 the next day. Instead, we got the biggest overnight turnaround since Mar 2009 and a breakout of the channel SPX has been in for the … continue reading →
We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL. Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →
Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks. And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels. ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds. Brussels is the de … continue reading →
In our October 6 update on oil [see: Update on CL] I expressed skepticism regarding oil’s ability to continue rallying. It had just popped 30% off the Aug 24 lows, and had broken out of a triangle formed while digesting those gains. Still, I saw it declining rather than making new highs. …lower prices make … continue reading →