If our charts are to be believed, we are on the cusp of a significant move in currency pairs and the bond yields. 10Y yields plunged back in March, then began rebounding via a long, drawn-out flag pattern that broke down in late June. Since then, it has been tracing out an equally long, drawn-out … continue reading →
A new week, a new breakout in the after-hours for no particular reason. And, just when the ramp job started to waver, a 5.6% smackdown on VIX – no news, just a reminder not to focus on the pandemic, the millions out of work, our dysfunctional Congress, the coming election battle, Trump’s tax troubles, etc. … continue reading →
ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel. Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much … continue reading →
ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight. The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →
The great thing about channels is that they tell you quite precisely when a trend change has occurred. The falling white channel seen on ES was tested just prior to the open yesterday. A simple smackdown on VIX and it was off to the races. As we noted at the time, ES’ 10-DMA had dropped … continue reading →
The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong? continued for members… … continue reading →
Let’s talk about inflation. At 0.4%, both headline and core handily beat consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Why? This morning’s CPI release is a treasure trove of information regarding price action in the general economy. On an annual basis, energy tanked and food soared. MoM, food was still strong while energy and used cars soared … continue reading →
Maybe the Fed had it right, leaving the door open to higher inflation. Though August headline PPI came in slightly higher than expected at 0.3% vs 0.2%, core PPI rose 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. S&P futures sold off 8 points on the news, but the algos had other ideas. As is often the case, “someone” … continue reading →
S&P 500 futures have bounced 77 points off their 50-DMA overnight lows, a substantial sum but not yet enough to break out of ES’ falling wedge which would be tested at 3380-3385. It raises the question: is this a garden variety pause or is the excitement over? continued for members… … continue reading →
Stocks nailed our second downside target from last Friday [see: Correction Warning.] Judging from the financial press, it was a shock to the average investor. It’s sad that a 4.5% correction would warrant such concern. But, as I often say, that’s the world in which we’re living. Bulls need February’s highs to hold, while bears … continue reading →