Whistling Past the Graveyard

Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks.  That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →

One Way or Another

After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target.  It should be enough … continue reading →

Next Steps

We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →

Why the Market Didn’t Correct Today

Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks.  And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels.  ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.  Brussels is the de … continue reading →

Ay, There’s the Rube

Oil is often viewed as a proxy for economic health.  In a growing economy, energy consumption increases.  This increased demand generally pressures prices higher.  Likewise, a decline in oil prices often accompanies declining demand. That’s a greatly oversimplified view, of course.  It ignores such important issues such as Middle East tensions, weather and refinery anomalies, … continue reading →

Update on Oil: Sep 20, 2012

Oil has tumbled the past few days, begging the question “what about QE3?”  It was supposed to prop up commodity prices.  There are many competing theories as to the influence of elections, Saudi assistance, etc.  But, the bottom line is CL had tagged some important channel lines and simply corrected. There are some pretty obvious … continue reading →