For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care. The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular. If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →
After feeling like the lone inflation alarmist for the past few months, I find myself in the midst of a growing chorus which now recognizes the Fed’s conundrum. Building inflationary pressures are now obvious to all. What isn’t clear is whether the Fed’s nonchalance re rising rates is real or feigned. And, if feigned, at … continue reading →
Texas, the energy capital of the US, is running short of energy. The cold snap is breaking records throughout the state, with temperatures so low that many wind and water turbines are frozen and not able to produce energy. Refineries are shut down. As of last night, over 3.5 million Texans are without power. Not … continue reading →
Thinking of the late great Chick Corea this morning as I survey the sky-high equities market… Futures have regained about half their overnight losses, spurred by a timely dip in VIX and pop in 10Y yields (testing Monday’s highs.) continued for members… … continue reading →
Jerome Powell gave a good news/bad news speech to the Economic Club of New York. He noted that employment is still 10 million below February 2020 levels and that a broader range of unemployment would put the current rate at 10%, adding, “We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly as the algos have backed off their assorted breakouts and breakdowns now that the bearish H&S Pattern has been busted.continued for members… … continue reading →
See if you can spot the point at which TSLA disclosed its purchase of $1.5 billion in BTC. Yes, in a world where seemingly everything is making new highs, BTC joins the party – courtesy of Elon Musk. continued for members… … continue reading →
In another obvious show of how easily this market can be manipulated, ES’ final bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern was busted in the final five minutes of trading yesterday. This morning, SPX’s H&S Pattern will also be busted with a burst higher in the wake of another disappointing jobs report. And all it took was … continue reading →
In Friday’s post VIX: Back From the Dead we noted that VIX had recovered from the breakdown below trend dating back to Nov 27. This morning, it’s testing overhead resistance from Jan 4 and, if it’s able to break through, will likely take on resistance from Dec 21 or even Oct 29. Bears might want … continue reading →
The last time we were this bearish on oil and gas was on October 3, 2018 [see: VIX Takes the Plunge.] Our reasoning at the time: CL and RB [have] not only reached overhead resistance by our measure, but must deal with inflation that’s too high, bearish API data, another round of Trump tweeting, and … continue reading →