Undone?

ES tagged our next downside target this morning……tagging the 4319 target we posted back on Jan 3 [see: De Facto Shutdown.] The only question now is whether stocks will get the big bounce they usually do after a 10% correction or whether they’ve come undone. In other words, I have this 1969 Guess Who classic … continue reading →

The De Facto Shutdown

Companies and individuals alike are cutting back their activities as the omicron outbreak continues to accelerate. Many companies, short of employees, supplies, or customers are raising pay, trimming back hours or cutting product offerings in order to stay afloat. Individuals are cutting back their activities in order to stay healthy. Though not official, the shutdown … continue reading →

DXY: Finally Breaking Out?

Stocks tumbled yesterday on inflation numbers that call into question the pace of the Fed’s taper and rate increases. Then they rallied overnight on an 11.4% collapse in VIX. The most significant chart on my screens at the moment, though, is the US dollar. DXY has had great difficulty breaking out of a tightly controlled … continue reading →

Out of Sync

SPX tagged a significant Fibonacci extension Friday, but ES came up short of its equivalent target at 4728. Meanwhile, CL is faltering and USDJPY is rolling over as VIX faces a bullish 10/20 cross. What does it all mean? Surprisingly, the answer might lie with the bond market. continued for members… … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Oct 27, 2021

Equity markets rarely fail to rally into the end of the year.  But, there have been several noteworthy Q4 exceptions over the years, each of them marked by VIX’s bounce off well-established trend lines. Note that SPX’s yellow channel has been rising at a compouned 12.2% per year since the 2009 bottom – historically a … continue reading →

Buying the Dip?

Futures are up moderately this morning, bouncing 60 points from their midnight lows on a retreat in VIX. Note that it wasn’t a collapse – the usual response when a rally is resuming. This lack of algo baiting occurred yesterday, too, when ES completed a Head & Shoulders Pattern and backtested it in a fashion … continue reading →

Equities Plunge on Loss of Algo Support

Futures reached our next downside target earlier this morning, the Fibonacci retracement at 4348 we added on Sep 9 [see: Just Don’t Call it a Taper.] ES is now off 4.6% since recent highs and 4% since our Correction Watch on Sep 8. The algo factors, which have propped up stocks for months, are positioned … continue reading →

Retail Sales Falter Without Stimulus

July retail sales fell 1.1% versus -0.3% consensus, reflecting the impact of stimulus payments, Amazon’s Prime Day change, and the general apprehension surrounding the delta variant. Yesterday’s bad news faded under heavy algo action, with VIX going into meltdown mode……the instant SPX reached its SMA10. The bears will get another shot today. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation: Still Here

Annual CPI remained at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years. And, that alarming number masks plenty of data which the BLS methodology simply ignores. Shelter, for instance, registered a 2.8% YoY increase per BLS’ survey-based calculation. Yet observed apartment rents increased at 9.2% in just the first six months of 2021. And, housing prices have … continue reading →