ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight. The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →
The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong? continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been only two weeks since our last update on COMP in which we pointed out COMP might be running out of upside. In that time, the index popped up to an even more compelling reversal point. Due to its age, the rising white channel that dates back to 2009 is subject to a little … continue reading →
COMP: the index that thinks it’s a beanstalk. It’s heavily weighted toward stocks which have done particularly well in the face of the global pandemic: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOGL. So, a reversal at current levels would be a big deal. Investors might wish to know, then, that it just bumped up against a … continue reading →
NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →
ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago. At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →
Yes, it was impressive. AAPL, FB, GOOGL and AMZN delivered big time. Yet, AMZN, the one that was best positioned to clean up, hasn’t yet broken above a key Fib level, let alone the top of the 20-year old channel which marked the July 13 reversal. If it does, fine, bears should prepare for a … continue reading →
Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →
Another VIX-inspired, holiday weekend ramp in the futures in the face of dismal headlines… What a shock. Not. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly this morning as we glide into the quarter end on a holiday-shortened, low-volume week. VIX’s triangle perfectly illustrates the technical picture: attempts to break out have been beaten back, while threats to break down have routinely been rebuffed. It’s exactly what one would expect when the goal is to maintain positive … continue reading →