That Sinking Feeling

As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Jun 21, 2022

My apologies for today’s post being so late. Our webhosting company just now fixed the “network connectivity problem in one of [their] clusters.”  I’d be very upset about it except for the fact that this is the very first time in over two years that they’ve ever let me down. This post will be a … continue reading →

It’s Currencies’ Turn

USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Turning Point

Per our analog, today is the next significant turning point – important in terms of confirming the direction and distance of the market’s next move. It has done an excellent job of forecasting the reversals, rallies and drops since we first posted it on May 13 [see: Analog Watch.] The first time I came across … continue reading →

Analog in Play

Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point. The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play. continued for members… … continue reading →

Bitcoin’s Meltdown

BTC reached our next downside target at 28,600 last night, then dropped as low as 25,401 before bouncing back to current levels. It’s not unusual for BTC to overshoot important support. And, this .618 Fib level is theoretically important support. But, it’s also important to remember that a bounce is sometimes just a backtest of … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

ES spent 11 hours hanging around our next downside target yesterday.  While the session had many characteristics of capitulation, the fact that SPX didn’t quite reach significant support (3956) suggests that the overnight ramp is a head fake.continued for members… … continue reading →

Nobody Saw it Coming

The financial press usually starts to take things seriously about this point in a correction. The permabulls aren’t calling bottoms any more, while the bears are licking their chops. It never fails, someone on TV says something like “no one saw this coming.” It’s silly, of course. What they mean is that they didn’t see … continue reading →