It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target. From Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23: BTC even managed a proper backtest of the last major Fib level, opening the door to the next upside target at the purple 3.618 extension at 62,977. … continue reading →
There are many parallels between yesterday and Jan 26, 2018 – the calm before a vicious 10-day 11.8% storm. The obvious one is that SPX is back to the top of the large yellow channel dating back to the 2009 lows. Then, as now, this occurred shortly after SPX had bulled its way through a … continue reading →
Jerome Powell gave a good news/bad news speech to the Economic Club of New York. He noted that employment is still 10 million below February 2020 levels and that a broader range of unemployment would put the current rate at 10%, adding, “We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are … continue reading →
ZN broke down from its rising red channel back on the 6th. Since then, it has found support in a falling channel – from which it is now threatening to break down.This is a moment of truth for bonds and the many correlated assets such as GC, shown above. Stocks might not be amused. continued … continue reading →
ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight. The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →
The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong? continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been only two weeks since our last update on COMP in which we pointed out COMP might be running out of upside. In that time, the index popped up to an even more compelling reversal point. Due to its age, the rising white channel that dates back to 2009 is subject to a little … continue reading →
COMP: the index that thinks it’s a beanstalk. It’s heavily weighted toward stocks which have done particularly well in the face of the global pandemic: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOGL. So, a reversal at current levels would be a big deal. Investors might wish to know, then, that it just bumped up against a … continue reading →
NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →
ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago. At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →