Charts I’m Watching: Jun 29, 2020

Futures are up modestly this morning as we glide into the quarter end on a holiday-shortened, low-volume week.  VIX’s triangle perfectly illustrates the technical picture: attempts to break out have been beaten back, while threats to break down have routinely been rebuffed. It’s exactly what one would expect when the goal is to maintain positive … continue reading →

Powell: What Did I Say!?

I saw an interesting interview on CNBC this morning where the guest observed how important overnight trading was to the market’s overall performance. Andrew Ross Sorkin offered data that if one bought the S&P 500 at the close of each day of trading and sold at the next morning’s open, they would be up 650% … continue reading →

Another Yield Curve Warning for Stocks

Two steps forward…in order to accommodate a big step back. We’ve seen it countless times in the lead-up to Fed meetings, GDP reports and, lately, jobs data. With May unemployment expected to top 20% (it’s unofficially already there) after another 7.5 million joined the jobless ranks……the market’s caretakers put a 58-pt cushion into the market.  … continue reading →

Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

The Hits Keep Coming

It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative.  Gee, could 25% … continue reading →

Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

Update on DJIA: Mar 18, 2020

In our last dedicated update on the Dow [see: July 2019 Update], we noted the intersection of a number of overhead resistance features in its chart and offered some thoughts on its downside potential if it managed to reverse. Note that our 18974 target represents a backtest of the red channel from which DJIA broke … continue reading →

The Storm Finally Arrives

After weeks of gathering clouds, the storm we’ve been watching has finally arrived. S&P futures are lock limit down just a few points above our next downside target. Not surprisingly, all of our other targets across currencies, commodities and fixed income have either tagged or exceeded our next downside targets, with more to go once … continue reading →

When Will News Begin to Matter Again?

Apparently AAPL slashing guidance is inconsequential and Bill Gates, who is predicting 10 million deaths, is some sort of conspiracy theorist – because the market continues to ignore the coronavirus story. Perhaps somewhere down the line the investing world will come to realize what we’ve known for years: stocks have become increasingly easy to manipulate. … continue reading →