Futures reached our next downside target earlier this morning, the Fibonacci retracement at 4348 we added on Sep 9 [see: Just Don’t Call it a Taper.] ES is now off 4.6% since recent highs and 4% since our Correction Watch on Sep 8. The algo factors, which have propped up stocks for months, are positioned … continue reading →
July retail sales fell 1.1% versus -0.3% consensus, reflecting the impact of stimulus payments, Amazon’s Prime Day change, and the general apprehension surrounding the delta variant. Yesterday’s bad news faded under heavy algo action, with VIX going into meltdown mode……the instant SPX reached its SMA10. The bears will get another shot today. continued for members… … continue reading →
Annual CPI remained at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years. And, that alarming number masks plenty of data which the BLS methodology simply ignores. Shelter, for instance, registered a 2.8% YoY increase per BLS’ survey-based calculation. Yet observed apartment rents increased at 9.2% in just the first six months of 2021. And, housing prices have … continue reading →
Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss. continued for members… … continue reading →
Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long. Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned … continue reading →
You know when the market is in a holding pattern by how VIX behaves. For the most of the past three weeks, we’ve seen sudden collapses in VIX just ahead of the cash open. It doesn’t always last, but it’s very effective in reminding algos to smack the snooze button, “fixing” any overnight declines and … continue reading →
Futures are flat after tumbling to and holding our backtest target yesterday morning. But, pay no attention to stocks just yet. They should continue to be under pressure, with the real action in oil and gas. continued for members… … continue reading →
Two quotes by Janet Yellen, only hours apart. The first clearly emphasizes the very real risk of rapidly rising inflation… “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.” …while … continue reading →
It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target. From Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23: BTC even managed a proper backtest of the last major Fib level, opening the door to the next upside target at the purple 3.618 extension at 62,977. … continue reading →
There are many parallels between yesterday and Jan 26, 2018 – the calm before a vicious 10-day 11.8% storm. The obvious one is that SPX is back to the top of the large yellow channel dating back to the 2009 lows. Then, as now, this occurred shortly after SPX had bulled its way through a … continue reading →