Danger Ahead

Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →

Another Day, Another Test

As we slowly make our way toward the end of Q2, we continue to see tests of important support. They are usually followed by sharp bounces despite the growing evidence that a selloff is right around the corner.Will today be the day the market finally takes the plunge? continued for members… … continue reading →

Oh Yeah, the China Trade Deal…

When does “it’s over” mean it’s not over?  When the market plunges 65 points, of course. The 2% hiccup came when Fox’s Martha MacCallum asked Trump advisor Peter Navarro whether John Bolton’s claims that Trump delayed imposing sanctions on China over its policy of interning Uighur Muslims would jeopardize the China trade deal. Navarro, fresh … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 22, 2020

Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday.  Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices. Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental … continue reading →

Another Yield Curve Warning for Stocks

Two steps forward…in order to accommodate a big step back. We’ve seen it countless times in the lead-up to Fed meetings, GDP reports and, lately, jobs data. With May unemployment expected to top 20% (it’s unofficially already there) after another 7.5 million joined the jobless ranks……the market’s caretakers put a 58-pt cushion into the market.  … continue reading →

Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

When Will News Begin to Matter Again?

Apparently AAPL slashing guidance is inconsequential and Bill Gates, who is predicting 10 million deaths, is some sort of conspiracy theorist – because the market continues to ignore the coronavirus story. Perhaps somewhere down the line the investing world will come to realize what we’ve known for years: stocks have become increasingly easy to manipulate. … continue reading →

Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →

Will This Time be Different?

We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close.  And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →