ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight. The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals. The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the … continue reading →
Today’s post could be an extension of yesterdays, with more beneficiaries of the shutdown such as Target and Lowes reporting big beats. Winners and losers. Curiously, ES failed to make a new high yesterday even thoughy SPX briefly rose above its February highs. You’ve always had to worry about predatory traders and specialists trying to … continue reading →
NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →
ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago. At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →
Yes, it was impressive. AAPL, FB, GOOGL and AMZN delivered big time. Yet, AMZN, the one that was best positioned to clean up, hasn’t yet broken above a key Fib level, let alone the top of the 20-year old channel which marked the July 13 reversal. If it does, fine, bears should prepare for a … continue reading →
Futures have given up all their Tesla gains and are pointing to a slightly lower open for the S&P this morning.Apparently, a threatened breakdown in VIX just isn’t as effective as it used to be. What we have here is a failure to capitulate (apologies to Cool Hand Luke for the cheap rip-off of a … continue reading →
Note: CPI came in right on target: +0.6% unadjusted over the last 12 months. The MoM figure also rose 0.6% – driven, as expected, by the 12.3% increase in gasoline prices. * * * The last time I wrote a post including all the FAANG stocks was in November 2018 [see: FAANGs – Now or … continue reading →
Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →
As we slowly make our way toward the end of Q2, we continue to see tests of important support. They are usually followed by sharp bounces despite the growing evidence that a selloff is right around the corner.Will today be the day the market finally takes the plunge? continued for members… … continue reading →
When does “it’s over” mean it’s not over? When the market plunges 65 points, of course. The 2% hiccup came when Fox’s Martha MacCallum asked Trump advisor Peter Navarro whether John Bolton’s claims that Trump delayed imposing sanctions on China over its policy of interning Uighur Muslims would jeopardize the China trade deal. Navarro, fresh … continue reading →