A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed. This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or … continue reading →

AAPL & AMZN on Deck

Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited. … continue reading →

Housing Continues to Disappoint

Housing starts missed again this morning, underscoring the NAHB’s assessment that the housing industry is in a recession. Starts came in 100K below consensus and 9.5% below June’s report. Futures, still laser focused on OPEX, didn’t budge. The NAHB posted the 8th monthly decline in a row yesterday, reporting the lowest reading since May 2020.  … continue reading →

Push Comes to Shove

Thanks to the ongoing assault on VIX, the bear rally from mid-June is on the brink of becoming an actual breakout. Bolstered by some key earnings beats and surprisingly dovish commentary from Powell, fundamental buyers can’t be faulted for being bullish. Or…it could just be a masterful headfake designed to wash out the massive downside … continue reading →