For months, VIX has facilitated higher equity prices – plumbing new lows, breaking down, refusing to rise in cases of obvious market distress. Today, it reached a trend line off the previous highs, all of which corresponded with sizeable bounces in the equity markets. It’s an extremely important test for bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly on light volume algo action in advance of tomorrow’s CPI data. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly this morning as the 10Y approaches our next downside target: a backtest of both its decades old falling price channel and the rising channel from its 2020 lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday’s mind-bending rally made very little sense except for the fact that it both washed out many more weak bears and resulted in a more logical placement of ES’ downside target. I’ll explain. continued for members… … continue reading →
WTI has reached our 200-day moving average target posted last month.This is a very significant move which, unfortunately, didn’t happen soon enough to affect June CPI or PPI. Long-time readers know that I’ve been harping on inflation for a long time. The reason is simple: math. Annual “headline” CPI, which is the one we all … continue reading →
SPX closed below important support yesterday, suggesting that the current leg down isn’t yet over. Indeed, things could get worse.continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up slightly as we approach the open – an extension of the bounce off recent lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
Stocks tumbled yesterday on inflation numbers that call into question the pace of the Fed’s taper and rate increases. Then they rallied overnight on an 11.4% collapse in VIX. The most significant chart on my screens at the moment, though, is the US dollar. DXY has had great difficulty breaking out of a tightly controlled … continue reading →
Producer Prices for Final Demand in October jumped 0.6% MoM and 8.6% YoY (6.2% less food, energy and trade.)Futures were little changed… …though the 10Y slipped to a cycle low of 1.43%. continued for members… … continue reading →
Equity markets rarely fail to rally into the end of the year. But, there have been several noteworthy Q4 exceptions over the years, each of them marked by VIX’s bounce off well-established trend lines. Note that SPX’s yellow channel has been rising at a compouned 12.2% per year since the 2009 bottom – historically a … continue reading →