It’s been a while since we took a big picture look at VIX. Since it reached levels not seen since the GFC yesterday, this seemed like as good a time as any. VIX is an interesting instrument. Once a reliable measure of volatility in the market, it was used by many to hedge risk. As … continue reading →
Tag Archives: trend lines
ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed. When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight. The breakdown seemed like it was sticking. But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →
We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close. And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →
As a chartist, I’m often struck by how similarly the stock market acts at important tops and bottoms. By “important tops” I’m speaking of those which precede large corrections or even crashes. So, with apologies to Tim Knight’s excellent Slope of Hope… In 2000, SPX retraced a Fibonacci 88.6% of its initial drop before falling … continue reading →
SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA. Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If … continue reading →
It was just last Tuesday we asked “where’s the bounce?” SPX had gapped lower and failed to rebound the way it always seems to has for the past year. We had watched a trend line dating back to Dec 29 (below, in red) break down, and were wondering about the small, white channel. From Where’s … continue reading →
Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target. Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight. So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →
This is day 8 of our membership promotion, running now through the end of the month for members and non-members alike. We’re offering a 25% rebate off the first month of Monthly and Quarterly auto-renew subscriptions. Annual memberships are available at a very substantial discount (rewarding those who act quickly!) Remember, the annual pricing is … continue reading →
SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected. All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout. There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →
The first big Republican victory — the repeal and replace of the ACA — has morphed into reproach and retreat. The net impact: what does this failure portend for the rest of the Trump agenda and, thus, the Trump Rally? Regular readers know that I’ve looked askance at this rally from the start [see: Why the “Trump … continue reading →