NFP Beats

NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and … continue reading →

Thinking About…a Correction

Will the addition of another “thinking about” keep stocks aloft until the next FOMC meeting?  Futures aren’t looking so hot, perhaps because WTI has now joined RBOB in breaking trend, 10Y yields have gapped lower, and VIX broke out of its falling wedge. The algos are not happy. continued for members… … continue reading →

Currencies: A Turning Point

Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →

PPI Disappoints

The producer price index missed this morning, coming in at -0.2% versus consensus and prior read of +0.4%. Core also missed at -0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%. Although the market has certainly staged a V-shaped recovery, someone forgot to check with the economy. Not to worry, because Gilead was quickly out with a press release … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 22, 2020

Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday.  Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices. Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental … continue reading →

The Holding Pattern

Futures are heading for another test of the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93, the fourth since last pushing above it on Monday. There are numerous targets below, but that would mean cooperation from the algos – a rare commodity these days. The bearish case, however, is growing stronger every day. continued for members… … continue reading →

We’re All Canaries

It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way.  Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →

Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

One Million Coronavirus Cases, Market Oblivious

It’s a day we all knew was coming — over 1 million cases of coronavirus cases officially diagnosed in the US, over 3 million worldwide. Experts such as Scott Gottlieb, former head of the FDA, estimate that actual US cases are 10 to 20 times the reported figure. Deaths currently stand at 56,803 – about … continue reading →