Are Things Really Better?

Under ordinary circumstances, a 2.3% MoM bump in Durable Goods orders would be very welcome – especially on the heels of last month’s -1.3% print. When inflation is a growing concern due to the Fed’s largesse, however, it complicates things. For instance, might it cause the Fed to take its foot off the gas? Not … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →

Bullard: Wait, Did I Say That?

Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →

Currencies: Tick-Tock

Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long. Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned … continue reading →

The Fed’s Big Day

We’ve pretty much beat the inflation horse to death on these pages over the past six months. Bottom line, It’s too high and potentially out of control. So far, however, the Fed’s been able to hoodwink investors and algos and commandeer the bond market. Aside from making things much more difficult for the little guy … continue reading →

Is the Snoozefest Over?

You know when the market is in a holding pattern by how VIX behaves. For the most of the past three weeks, we’ve seen sudden collapses in VIX just ahead of the cash open. It doesn’t always last, but it’s very effective in reminding algos to smack the snooze button, “fixing” any overnight declines and … continue reading →

Bad News is Good Again

If yesterday’s better than expected ADP jobs data was bad news, then it stands to reason that today’s worse than expected DOL NFP print would be good for the market.  Well, that, and the 13% pounding VIX has taken… As it was hammered back below its SMA10, ES was ramped up above its SMA10. Funny … continue reading →

What’s the Holdup?

The Dow, the most easily and commonly manipulated index, has gone nowhere since failing to hold its 3.618 Fib extension at 34,430. It begs the question: what’s the holdup? Usually, when a closely followed index goes sideways for a while, it’s because an important moving average is moving into position for a backtest. But, is … continue reading →

Why Bonds Are Still Important

I had an great question yesterday regarding the bond market: “Is it possible the fear of pandemic in spring 2020 affected the behavior of 2yr and 10 yr and then indirectly triggered the crash?” Pebblewriter longhaulers will recall that our bond cycle model forecast a severe plunge in interest rates long before anyone was talking … continue reading →