Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged. One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100. Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead. continued for members… … continue reading →
The OPEX overnight ramp faltered with news of the UAW strike. Futures are currently off slightly despite VIX falling to levels not seen since Jan 2020. continued for members… … continue reading →
August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →
Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches. Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase. continued for members… … continue reading →
There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue. Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, … continue reading →
Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading. continued for members… … continue reading →
Second quarter GDP was revised downward from 2.4% to 2.1%, providing a much needed boost to bulls hoping for another Fed pause. Of course, it also provides bears with some evidence of an economic slowdown. Futures have been hovering around flat all morning. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly in advance of consumer confidence data due out at 10 ET. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →