Judging the Fed

In an excellent interview on CNBC this morning, Paul Tudor Jones echoed what many on Wall Street have been thinking and we have been writing for the past year or so. Inflation could be “much worse” than feared, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says. “It’s probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial … continue reading →

Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

Futures nailed our 4424 target overnight. Most will attribute it to Powell’s (completely unsurprising) resolve to support the economy the stock market. But, we know that the algos were spurred into action by VIX’s drop back into the falling channel from Mar 2020 and its dip below its 200-DMA. Remember, it ain’t over till it’s … continue reading →

Because They Can Can Can

Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print…  More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices.  In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →

OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →

Momentum: It Goes Both Ways

The correction is gathering steam, with ES off 40 points earlier this morning before getting a bounce. From a technical standpoint the culprit is VIX, which broke out of the falling channel which has guided stocks higher since March 2020. Our downside targets remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →

Retail Sales Falter Without Stimulus

July retail sales fell 1.1% versus -0.3% consensus, reflecting the impact of stimulus payments, Amazon’s Prime Day change, and the general apprehension surrounding the delta variant. Yesterday’s bad news faded under heavy algo action, with VIX going into meltdown mode……the instant SPX reached its SMA10. The bears will get another shot today. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation: Still Here

Annual CPI remained at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years. And, that alarming number masks plenty of data which the BLS methodology simply ignores. Shelter, for instance, registered a 2.8% YoY increase per BLS’ survey-based calculation. Yet observed apartment rents increased at 9.2% in just the first six months of 2021. And, housing prices have … continue reading →

Update on Gold and Silver: Aug 9, 2021

The Fed detests gold and silver because, like higher interest rates, they are a stark reminder of the soaring inflation the Fed hopes we’ll ignore.  Interest rates can be manipulated lower by buying up every bond in sight. The Fed has been doing this to the tune of $120 billion per month. Gold and silver, … continue reading →