Futures have rebounded modestly following yesterday’s drubbing. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index’s plunge from 108.7 to 103 did little to convince investors that the consumer is still doing well. Perhaps the more important question: will it outweigh, in the minds of FOMC members, the stellar 0.9% increase in August for core capital goods? continued … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead. continued for members… … continue reading →
August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →
Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches. Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume. continued for members… … continue reading →
After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell. In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than … continue reading →
It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →