Charts I’m Watching: Sep 27, 2023

Futures have rebounded modestly following yesterday’s drubbing. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index’s plunge from 108.7 to 103 did little to convince investors that the consumer is still doing well. Perhaps the more important question: will it outweigh, in the minds of FOMC members, the stellar 0.9% increase in August for core capital goods? continued … continue reading →

CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy. Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows … continue reading →

PCE On the Rise

After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell. In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than … continue reading →

Powell Back in the Spotlight

It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time: “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.” After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess … continue reading →