Stagflation Fears Renewed

January PPI came in much hotter than expected while housing starts and permits fell far short of consensus, stoking persistent fears of stagflation.  PPI came in at 0.3% MoM versus 0.1% expected.  Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Stripping out trade services, the tally rose to 0.6%, its highest print … continue reading →

A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

The Year in Review: 2023

These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility.  More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →

PCE Just High Enough

Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →

VIX: Decision Time

VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities? continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed. This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up … continue reading →