Inflation Not Done

We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →

Minute by Minute

The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →

No Surprise

“I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one. Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise. continued for members… … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified? continued for members… … continue reading →

Price Setting

After establishing a well-formed falling channel and positioning for a bearish 10/20 cross, SPX soared last week on  – what else? – another collapse in VIX. In the process, the 10/20 cross was (at least) delayed and the channel busted.  It’s normal activity for the lead up to a Fed meeting. Perhaps “price discovery” should … continue reading →

Retail Sales Slip, VIX Warns

March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  … continue reading →

PPI Echoes CPI

After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →