We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →
Tag Archives: Inverse H&S
The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →
“I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one. Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise. continued for members… … continue reading →
According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified? continued for members… … continue reading →
After establishing a well-formed falling channel and positioning for a bearish 10/20 cross, SPX soared last week on – what else? – another collapse in VIX. In the process, the 10/20 cross was (at least) delayed and the channel busted. It’s normal activity for the lead up to a Fed meeting. Perhaps “price discovery” should … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately on light volume… … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX. continued for members… … continue reading →
ES is up 1.3% in the past week. All it took was a 15% beatdown in VIX. continued for members… … continue reading →
VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over. continued for members… … continue reading →
March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%. Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May. So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively. … continue reading →
After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →