updated: Mar 4, 2020

We called the top on the 10Y on October 10, 2018 [see: Plan B] with rates at 3.24% and ZN at 117’230. Since then, prices have rallied about 15%.

…I’ve always been inclined to believe more in the yellow channel — which says that 10Y yields have now topped and ZN has bottomed.

The price chart has been clear ever since December 2018 [see: December 26 Update on Bonds] with a critical target of 130’200 – 130’230……updated to 133’025 in August 2019 [see: Aug 7 Update]…

…and adjusted to 132’100-135’155 in January 2020 [see: Bonds: More Turmoil Ahead.]

Yesterday, it reached and pushed past  our 135’155 target – the highs last seen in July 2012.With both the 10Y and 30Y tumbling to all-time lows, what might lie ahead for bonds? Is there still more upside in store? And, what does it mean for stocks?

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