Judging the Fed

In an excellent interview on CNBC this morning, Paul Tudor Jones echoed what many on Wall Street have been thinking and we have been writing for the past year or so. Inflation could be “much worse” than feared, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says. “It’s probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial … continue reading →

Buying the Dip?

Futures are up moderately this morning, bouncing 60 points from their midnight lows on a retreat in VIX. Note that it wasn’t a collapse – the usual response when a rally is resuming. This lack of algo baiting occurred yesterday, too, when ES completed a Head & Shoulders Pattern and backtested it in a fashion … continue reading →

Gold: Anatomy of a Rat’s Nest Chart

Once in a while, charts are so crystal clear that we can see the future as easily as we can reflect on the past. Gold is not one of those charts. The zigs and zags come fast and furious and rarely correlate with anything happening in the real world. Witness the indifference this so-called inflation … continue reading →

Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

Futures nailed our 4424 target overnight. Most will attribute it to Powell’s (completely unsurprising) resolve to support the economy the stock market. But, we know that the algos were spurred into action by VIX’s drop back into the falling channel from Mar 2020 and its dip below its 200-DMA. Remember, it ain’t over till it’s … continue reading →

OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →

Momentum: It Goes Both Ways

The correction is gathering steam, with ES off 40 points earlier this morning before getting a bounce. From a technical standpoint the culprit is VIX, which broke out of the falling channel which has guided stocks higher since March 2020. Our downside targets remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →

Retail Sales Falter Without Stimulus

July retail sales fell 1.1% versus -0.3% consensus, reflecting the impact of stimulus payments, Amazon’s Prime Day change, and the general apprehension surrounding the delta variant. Yesterday’s bad news faded under heavy algo action, with VIX going into meltdown mode……the instant SPX reached its SMA10. The bears will get another shot today. continued for members… … continue reading →