VIX at a Crossroads

For months, VIX has facilitated higher equity prices – plumbing new lows, breaking down, refusing to rise in cases of obvious market distress. Today, it reached a trend line off the previous highs, all of which corresponded with sizeable bounces in the equity markets. It’s an extremely important test for bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Another Head and Shoulders Pattern

Another ugly open for markets as ES, down about 1.25%, completed its H&S Pattern we’ve been watching take shape. More grist for the bearish mill…as though we needed any more. continued for members… … continue reading →

Pretty Soon, You’re Talking Real Money

Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.  It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →

Inflation Rises

August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… … continue reading →

More VIX Games

The algos were back at it yesterday, pumping stocks higher via VIX and the USDJPY.  Note that VIX dropped back to the TL which it broke below in August. This brought ES within striking distance of a backtest of its latest H&S Pattern just in time for next week’s CPI data to drop.continued for members… … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →