10Y yields briefly poked above the Mar 2021 highs, adding to the drama surrounding next week’s CPI report. Meanwhile, December NFP came in at +199K, less than half consensus, while the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% and wages continued to strengthen. Remember, this was all pre-omicron. Futures were not amused. While ES held its 50-DMA … continue reading →
Companies and individuals alike are cutting back their activities as the omicron outbreak continues to accelerate. Many companies, short of employees, supplies, or customers are raising pay, trimming back hours or cutting product offerings in order to stay afloat. Individuals are cutting back their activities in order to stay healthy. Though not official, the shutdown … continue reading →
Having reached an interim high, ES is content to remain there…for now. continued for members… … continue reading →
Algos are eyeing new all-time highs for the third session in a row, a combination of low volume… …and VIX’s continuing flirtation with its 200-DMA. continued for members… … continue reading →
We’ve been writing about the current inflation problem for years. In December 2019 for instance [see: Inflation Games], we noted that CPI was about to top 2% again and that this realization had prompted the Fed’s shift from a 2% target to a range in excess of 2% to make up for past shortfalls. Without … continue reading →
The Fed’s experiment of pouring trillions of dollars into the markets is coming to an inglorious end. Even though an accelerated taper will still results in hundreds of billions in additional liquidity over the next several months, the writing is on the wall. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said it well yesterday on CBS’ … continue reading →
VIX tagged our 34.84 target on Friday – an important breakout in risk – before tumbling back into the safe zone. With other factors holding their ground and equities’ 100-DMAs still untagged, it’s not at all clear that the worst is over. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s only happened 4 times in the past five years. The last time it happened was on Feb 27, 2020. SPX had reached a new all-time high of 3393.52 a week earlier and had sold off 12% so far on news of the new coronavirus reaching US shores. We were in the minority of analysts … continue reading →
You know things are getting real when ES closes below its 50-day moving average. It has bounced at that support 9 times in the past year. When the 50-DMA fails, the 100-DMA has provided support 6 times since Jun 2020. With ES closing below its 50-DMA yesterday and likely to reach its 100-DMA today, is … continue reading →
The algos have been busy overnight again, driving futures up 50+ points as we head into the open. Omicron shutdowns, botched responses and Powell’s admission that the Fed might accelerate the taper seem to have been forgotten. ES came close to our next downside target, but whiffed. Is the correction over? continued for members… … continue reading →