As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →
Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly, backtesting the 20-day moving average for a second day. Time to buckle up. continued for members… … continue reading →
Following a series of intraday ramps, futures shot up above the 10-day moving average as soon as the market closed. Bogus? Of course. But, the record will reflect (and the algos have responded to) a seemingly bullish move. Chase it at your own peril. Today’s tricks will include trying to get past the 10am New … continue reading →
Futures just backtested the 10-day moving average and our analog trendline, leaving the door open for a pullback – as long as VIX doesn’t get clobbered again. continued for members… … continue reading →
WTI spent May 2020 through Feb 2022 in a fairly well-defined channel (below, in white) as it recovered from its pandemic lows. It broke out on Mar 1, however, topping 100 and taking only 5 sessions to reach our 130 target which wasn’t schedule to happen until December.Since then, it’s seen a series of fits … continue reading →
My apologies for today’s post being so late. Our webhosting company just now fixed the “network connectivity problem in one of [their] clusters.” I’d be very upset about it except for the fact that this is the very first time in over two years that they’ve ever let me down. This post will be a … continue reading →
Futures bounced over 1% overnight into OPEX, but are now flirting with negative readings. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off about 2% following yesterday’s FOMC announcement and press conference – the closest we’ll probably ever get to a mea culpa – which was accompanied by the usual algo nonsense. Suffice it to say, traders have come to their senses and markets are once again reflecting the likelihood of the Fed tightening into … continue reading →
Remember the post from last July [see: Time to Sell Your Home?] regarding the effect of rising interest rates on housing prices? With mortgage rates at 2.60% at the time, we did some simple calculations to show the impact of an increase in rates to as high as 6%. A $1 million house with a … continue reading →