All Good Things…

All good things must come to an end, or so the saying goes. For NVDA, it’s clear that the stock’s rally since the end of 2023 was following a very steep and narrow acceleration channel. These sorts of patterns feed upon themselves. As long as no one upsets the apple cart, there are outsized profits … continue reading →

NFP Soars

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  … continue reading →

No Pivot, No Punch Bowl

Powell said what many of us have been thinking: There’s no reason to rush into a rate cut. The part he didn’t say (but implied) was that there was a clear risk to cutting rates at this time. The market, which has been fueled for months by rate cut expectations, was quite disappointed. SPX shed … continue reading →

Will They or Won’t They?

Futures are off moderately as investors place their bets on tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. This follows yesterday’s pop in prices which was reported as motivated by a better than expected treasury report, but was in reality driven by [drumroll please] more algo funny business in VIX. In any case, SPX was finally pried off its … continue reading →

Update on Gold and Silver: Jan 24, 2024

In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22. It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced … continue reading →

A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

The Year in Review: 2023

These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility.  More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →

Inflation Not Done

We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →