The Bond Market Finally Woke Up

For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care.  The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular.  If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →

500 Miles High

Thinking of the late great Chick Corea this morning as I survey the sky-high equities market…  Futures have regained about half their overnight losses, spurred by a timely dip in VIX and pop in 10Y yields (testing Monday’s highs.) continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Jan 4, 2021

BTC reached our next upside target at 29,890-30,108 [see: Dec 22 Update on BTC.]  Had it remained in either the rising pink or purple channel, it might have taken quite some time. But, as we discussed last month, it broke out of both channels and topped the Fib target at almost exactly the time forecast … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Nov 17, 2020

Almost 8 months ago I posted our first outlook on BTC [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]   We noted at the time that the FOMC was “officially in the short-squeeze business” after ES came within 19 points (trading was halted there) of our 2155 target and the Dow was set to test the Nov 8, 2016 (election … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: May 28, 2020

I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]  The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →