Futures are off moderately as investors place their bets on tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. This follows yesterday’s pop in prices which was reported as motivated by a better than expected treasury report, but was in reality driven by [drumroll please] more algo funny business in VIX.

In any case, SPX was finally pried off its 2.24 Fib extension just in time for tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

continued for members…

It’s anybody’s guess whether the FOMC will lower rates. Clearly there’s much positivity in the economic data lately. But, markets have already priced in a rate cut, and there are still some thorny CPI issues to address: namely, two hot wars and their potential impact on oil prices. In other words, there is elevated risk of a disappointment going into this decision.

There has still been no real backtest of SPX’s IH&S.

EURUSD continues to tease a breakdown below the SMA200 and USDJPY continues to go sideways with a clear path to higher but a rising SMA200 coming into view. Day 11 for DXY sitting on its SMA200.

CL and RB have reversed, which is helping TNX slink below its SMA200. stay tuned…

UPDATE:  10:00 AM

Higher job openings and higher consumer confidence are putting a floor under the 10Y just in time to prevent a drop through a TL from the Dec 27 lows.