We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.

The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.

continued for members…The equity picture is unchanged from last week…

…with the exception of VIX, which has undergone a bearish (bullish for stocks) 10/20 cross even as the index itself has gapped higher. Cross-currents indeed!

Currencies are aiding the bears’ case. BTC is having a rough day. Down over 4% earlier, it might finally be on its way to the lower channel bound and/or SMA200…But, it’s CL and RB that are raising inflationary alarms and providing some juice for TNX’s breakout.

We must note, however, that the last “breakout” in June 2022 didn’t hold.

And, the longer term chart still argues for lower prices. RB’s breakout is more convincing.

The net effect should be to lift TNX out of its consolidation in the very near future.

Stay tuned…