Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →

Bullard: Wait, Did I Say That?

Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →

Bad News is Good Again

If yesterday’s better than expected ADP jobs data was bad news, then it stands to reason that today’s worse than expected DOL NFP print would be good for the market.  Well, that, and the 13% pounding VIX has taken… As it was hammered back below its SMA10, ES was ramped up above its SMA10. Funny … continue reading →

PPI Confirms Hot Inflation

It comes as no surprise that PPI confirmed yesterday’s hot CPI print, coming in at a whopping 6.2%. We’ve been beating the inflation drum for so long, it feels a bit anticlimactic to acknowledge that it’s finally here and even slightly greater than we anticipated. As regular readers well know, I expected central bankers to … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: May 6, 2021

Futures are flat after tumbling to and holding our backtest target yesterday morning. But, pay no attention to stocks just yet. They should continue to be under pressure, with the real action in oil and gas. continued for members… … continue reading →

The Bond Market Finally Woke Up

For months we’ve been warning about the coming inflation problem, wondering when the bond market would notice and/or care.  The immediate problem in a nutshell: One of the most highly correlated components of CPI with the headline rate is the price of energy, and gasoline in particular.  If prices were to remain where they are … continue reading →