Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2023

Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments. continued for members… … continue reading →

BoJ: Just Kidding

It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy. This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jul 26, 2023

Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared … continue reading →

Forcing Their Hand

The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y. It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Not Done

We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →