Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

Futures nailed our 4424 target overnight. Most will attribute it to Powell’s (completely unsurprising) resolve to support the economy the stock market. But, we know that the algos were spurred into action by VIX’s drop back into the falling channel from Mar 2020 and its dip below its 200-DMA. Remember, it ain’t over till it’s … continue reading →

Equities Plunge on Loss of Algo Support

Futures reached our next downside target earlier this morning, the Fibonacci retracement at 4348 we added on Sep 9 [see: Just Don’t Call it a Taper.] ES is now off 4.6% since recent highs and 4% since our Correction Watch on Sep 8. The algo factors, which have propped up stocks for months, are positioned … continue reading →

OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2021

COVID deaths continue to mount and the return to work pushes further into the future, a negative backdrop for equities at a time when they’re losing momentum from the reflation factors. Futures are off mildly after bouncing off their overnight lows. continued for members… … continue reading →

Momentum: It Goes Both Ways

The correction is gathering steam, with ES off 40 points earlier this morning before getting a bounce. From a technical standpoint the culprit is VIX, which broke out of the falling channel which has guided stocks higher since March 2020. Our downside targets remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 6, 2021

Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss. continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →