Jawboning an OPEX Rally

Yesterday’s 1.2% spurt higher was driven not only by the usual push in USDJPY and plunge in VIX, but a healthy dose of hopium regarding the debt ceiling crisis. Congressional and White House reps were nearly unanimous in declaring that a deal is as good as done.

Whether they’re speaking the truth or simply trying to avoid a market meltdown a la 2011 remains to be seen. Both SPX and ES saw a bullish 10/20 cross, but it could unwind if ES closes back below the former resistance at 4166. Keep on eye on the ever proficuous VIX, which usually triggers algos to buy any significant dips by breaking below support such as the purple channel bottom below.

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